Geopolitics in the Middle East continued to be tense. The day before the non-farm payrolls report was released, the major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly lower. Bitcoin briefly fell below 60K last night, and Ethereum was back around 2,300. JPMorgan Chase believes that increasing geopolitical tensions will drive “depreciation trading” dominated by gold and Bitcoin. Is there a chance that the crypto market will usher in an “Uptober”?
Markets focus on U.S. jobs report
Yesterday (10/3) it was announced that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 225,000, slightly higher than the expected 222,000. But Hurricane Helene's raging through the southeastern United States and strikes at Boeing and ports could distort labor market conditions in the short term.
(There is a general strike at the American docks. The era of One Piece is coming again? Can AI help?)
The September employment report to be released on Friday is important economic data that may affect the Fed's policy. Economists polled by Reuters expected 140,000 jobs to be added, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.2%.
Traders saw the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut next month falling to 32.8%, down from 49% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch. The probability of just one rate cut increased to 67.2%.
Geopolitical tensions bring 'devaluation trade'
JPMorgan analysts said rising geopolitical tensions and November's presidential election are driving investors toward gold and bitcoin as safe-haven assets, in what they call a "debasement trade."
This “depreciation trade” is driven by a variety of factors, including rising geopolitical uncertainty from 2022, persistent inflation concerns, large government deficits in major economies, and waning confidence in fiat currencies, especially in some emerging markets.
However, while gold prices have risen on lower U.S. Treasury yields and rising geopolitical risks, a similar situation has not yet occurred for Bitcoin.
When is "Uptober" coming?
QCP Capital analysts believe the downturn is temporary. It also emphasized the strong correlation between the performance of cryptocurrencies and the U.S. stock market, expecting that as the stock market recovers, the cryptocurrency market will follow suit.
Bitcoin briefly fell below 60K last night, reaching $59,828. After Bitcoin falls below the neckline, can it stage a "coffee cup pattern" similar to the U.S. stock market? It will take time to prove that it will bring the "Uptober" market that everyone is looking forward to.
Note: "Coffee Cup Type": After the completed arc bottom, a platform finishing area is carried out to form a cup handle shape, and then it breaks through the previous high.
This article BTC once fell below 60K, will "depreciation trading" bring Bitcoin to an Uptober? First appeared in Chain News ABMedia.
