Affected by the turbulent situation in the region, BTC retreated all the way to the 60k line. The continuous decline has made the long leverage pay the price. So much so that some netizens posted on zerohedge, directly accusing BTC of not being a "safe haven asset" and that it will fall as soon as the cannon is fired.
BTC evening market interpretation: The daily line has rebounded effectively after two dips. If the data tonight cannot bring positive results, the risk of decline is still high, and the daily range shock may be completely completed! BTC price tested the support range near 60,000 for two consecutive days. Although it rebounded effectively, the strength was not obvious. And the daily closing trend is not optimistic. If the daily line rebounds tonight and fails to close, the technical risk of decline is still high.
Resistance: 61,900 is the current key resistance point, and the key resistance point is updated to 62,550 daily resistance. Support: The daily MA50 near 60,300 can be used as a simple buffer support. The superimposed 60,000 integer level can play a certain supporting role. The truly effective resistance point is still to refer to 58,200. RSI: The index has fallen back to around 45, and currently maintains a neutral to low position. There is no probability of triggering an oversold rebound in the short term.
Summary: Tonight’s weekly unemployment data and service industry data are the focus of tonight’s bullish factors. If the data is good, it can boost the US stock market, which can play a positive role for BTC.
If the bullish momentum is ineffective and continues to fall, it is very likely that the price will continue to fall and test the daily line support. By then, the price will have completely completed the daily oscillation range, and the RSI index is likely to touch the oversold rebound of 30 points. If tomorrow's non-agricultural data continues to remain good, then BTC will complete a range oscillation and touch the key support this week.
However, the focus of all these expectations is still on the data tomorrow, Friday. The actual situation depends on the data tomorrow night. If tonight’s data stimulates the U.S. stock market, the U.S. stock market can drive BTC to stabilize around 60,000, which is not bad. However, I personally prefer the rebound after the range is completed, which is the best rebound position. Below 60,000 can also effectively activate a certain amount of buying volume.
The entire network was liquidated with a loss of US$240 million
According to Glassnode data, the total amount of liquidated contracts on the entire network exceeded US$240 million in the past 24 hours, of which more than US$180 million were liquidated for long positions, and more than 87,000 people were liquidated. Although the amount of liquidation has eased compared to yesterday, the current market is volatile, so investors should pay attention to the risks.
The Fed’s interest rate cut can also make everyone feel at ease. The market will not continue to fall. Friends who have spot goods and are stuck, don’t be anxious, keep a steady mind and wait for the market to improve.
In general, as long as the war does not spread and the market recovers, bulls still have the final say. Most of the altcoins are similar. If the big bitcoin drops by 10%, the altcoins will drop by 30%. Only a few can follow independent trends, such as SUI. Its recent performance is really eye-catching. Large-scale token unlocking has not been able to pull it down. And the trend is getting stronger and stronger. In the long run, it will break new highs soon. You can continue to pay attention to it.
Sol low long point: 131.65, this position is the same as BTC 58200, connecting the upper and lower levels. If it reaches this point, do not easily take profit on all positions. Even if it falls below, there is generally only about 10 points of space left. You can add a position and go directly up. Generally, try not to go short when you are short below 138. If you are already short, you need to reduce your position and leverage if you go short again.
ETH low long point: 2282, this position is the same as BTC 58200. Even if it falls below here, there is generally only about 150 points of space above and below in the short term. Do not go short again when you are short below 2360, and start to try low longs as the main, and the long position is not in place for the time being. Low longs to the third hand basically belong to the category of bottom fishing.
Meme may be the one that has fallen the hardest right now, and it is also the one that has rebounded the fastest. As I said before, every pullback of meme is an opportunity for us to get on board. As long as you dare, meme will definitely bring you surprises in this bull market. It is a must for everyone to have one or two. FLOKI, PEPE, BOME, and WIF are preferred, and the other combination depends on the situation.
These two major positive factors are about to become the key catalysts for the subsequent bull market outbreak!
1. The US election and global liquidity may become key positives!
As Election Day approaches, this election cycle has many “firsts” for the cryptocurrency industry. First, the crypto industry has become a major topic in political discussions and campaign financing.
The following chart shows the relationship between the changes in the Republican victory probability on Polymarket and the change in the price of Bitcoin (as a proxy for the overall crypto market performance) over a three-day period. Different election stages are marked with different colors: gray represents the initial stage (before June 26), red represents the Republican momentum stage (late June to late July), blue represents the Democratic momentum stage (late July to mid-August), and black represents the final stage (since mid-August).
If the market were pegging cryptocurrency prices directly to the Republican odds of winning, the points in the graph should form a 45-degree line that slopes upward. Similarly, if they were pegged to the Democratic odds of winning, the points should form a similar but downward-sloping line. However, the graph shows a scattered cluster of points, indicating that so far, no clear, consistent trend has emerged between election results and cryptocurrency prices.
This dynamic is reflected in the different colored phases in the figure. Although the relationship is stronger during the Republican momentum phase, it still only explains less than 20% of Bitcoin's price fluctuations. This does not mean that elections are not important for cryptocurrency price movements. On the contrary, this relationship is likely to become more pronounced as election day approaches. However, this inconsistent relationship also shows that other key factors still dominate the price movements of the crypto market.
2. Interest rate outlook suggests a new pattern for cryptocurrency prices
The recent global liquidity shift has boosted global markets, including cryptocurrencies. The strong start to the Fed’s new rate-cutting cycle, coupled with China’s unexpected market-boosting measures, are likely the main drivers of the recent cryptocurrency price gains.
Unlike stocks, cryptocurrencies lack rich historical data to measure return performance in different interest rate environments. However, analyzing the relationship between cryptocurrency prices and interest rate environments is still instructive. The figure below shows the effective federal funds rate and the fixed-term yields of Treasury bonds from 1 year to 30 years. To provide context, the chart below shows the US dollar price of Bitcoin on a logarithmic scale and annotates market cycles with different colors: green represents the bull markets of 2016-2017 and 2020-2021, and red represents the bear markets of 2018 and 2022.
This chart suggests that the current combination of a widely expected “soft landing” and lower interest rates will create an unprecedented macro environment for cryptocurrencies. This scenario is different from the industry-led cycle of 2016-2017 and the COVID-era 2020-2021 rate-cut-driven surge.
As such, macroeconomic factors are expected to have a significant impact on cryptocurrency prices in the near term, as indicated by the growing correlation between cryptocurrencies and broader risk assets.
While factors such as geopolitical tensions and supply-demand imbalances may still affect the market, the main drivers most likely to determine the direction of the market over the next two to three months will continue to be the upcoming elections and global liquidity conditions. How these trends will develop will be apparent in the next critical period.
