Cryptocurrency market outlook for the fourth quarter and 2025
We remain optimistic about the market outlook (Q4 and 2025), mainly based on the following considerations:
1. The Fed cuts interest rates
Event overview: On September 18, the Federal Reserve implemented a 50 basis point interest rate cut.
Impact analysis: In the medium and long term, interest rate cuts are beneficial to risky assets such as Bitcoin. If the US economy can achieve a "soft landing", that is, avoid a severe recession and control inflation, interest rate cuts will stimulate economic activities and drive investors to turn to high-risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Time expectation: The market reflects the need to wait patiently for a few months, and the Federal Reserve is expected to reach the 2% interest rate target in 2025. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets often occur during periods of relatively low interest rates.
2. US election
Event overview: More than a month before the U.S. presidential election, both Trump and Harris expressed support for cryptocurrencies.
Impact analysis: General elections usually trigger fluctuations in financial markets, including the crypto market. The statements of the two candidates are positive for the crypto market, but only affect the short-term trend. The long-term trend is more affected by the macroeconomic situation.
Future Outlook: Bitcoin is regarded as digital gold and has great development potential in the long run. Regulatory policies after the election may bring short-term fluctuations, but they cannot stop the development of Bitcoin in the long run.
3. Global liquidity
Focus: In addition to US dollar liquidity, we also need to pay attention to China's economic stimulus policies.
Current situation analysis: China continues to announce economic stimulus plans, driving the stock market up. In the short term, funds mainly flow into the stock market, and the inflow of funds into the crypto market is limited.
Future trends: Funds tend to be profitable, and some funds may flow directly or indirectly into the crypto market next year (2025). The increase in M2 money supply is potentially good for Bitcoin. FTX repays $16 billion in debt, and funds may flow back to the crypto market, which will have a positive impact.
4. Summary
At present: The crypto market is in an uncertain stage, facing problems such as shipment pressure, geopolitical and economic indicators. In the short term, the market is mainly volatile, and it is difficult to see strong catalysts for growth.
Mid- to long-term: The market is accumulating momentum, but important catalysts have not yet emerged. The fourth quarter is a transition (change) period, and we need to wait patiently until 2025 to see new directions and possibilities.
Future Outlook: After 2025, Bitcoin may reach a new all-time high.
BTC
Yesterday's daily report gave a short position near 62,300, which is the best! And 60,000-59,500 has been touched! There is still room below, and 58,300-57,500 is still likely to be reached. At that time, pay attention to the buying opportunities at this position!
ETH
The main rebound is weak, and 2530 has not been touched! Now it is temporarily supported near 2370-2380, and rebounded to 2460-2480. However, there is still room below, waiting for the price to enter 2330-2280 to observe the opportunity to buy.
SUN
The price is expected to be supported near 140, but if it rebounds no more than 146-148, we will continue to wait for the buying opportunity near 136!
The information and data involved in this content are derived from publicly available materials, and we strive to be accurate and reliable, but we do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information. The content does not constitute any investment advice, and you are solely responsible for investing based on it!
