As the global market reacts to the rising geopolitical tensions facing the Middle East, Bitcoin (BTC)’s expected October rally has been delayed. Before the Iranian missile strike on Israel, Bitcoin’s price was above $64,000.
Following the incident, the coin’s value dropped to $60,350 as investors responded to the macroeconomic factor with a significant sell-off. This analysis explores the impact of the escalating conflict on Bitcoin price action, how market sentiment has changed, and what might be next for BTC.
Iran's Strike on Israel Threatens Bitcoin
Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index was at 61 at the start of yesterday, reflecting positive sentiment from investors. This index ranges from 0 to 100 and measures market sentiment. Readings close to zero indicate extreme fear, while values closer to 100 indicate greed and optimism.
Prior to the Iranian missile strike, the index indicated strong investor confidence in Bitcoin’s price rising above $64,000. However, the index has since dropped to 39, indicating increased fear in the market and a possible halt in Bitcoin’s rally.
Amidst the gloomy sentiment, Bitcoin's price has fallen below the realized short-term holder (STH) price, which is the average on-chain holding cost over the past 155 days.
When the price of the coin is above it, the trend is bullish, and the price can reach higher levels. At the time of publication, the realized STH price of Bitcoin is $62,617. Since it is higher, it indicates that Bitcoin may not approach $80,000 in the short term.
BTC Price Prediction $60,600 is the Key
From a blockchain perspective, the In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) indicator shows that the area between $63,510 and $65,323 is crucial for Bitcoin. IOMAP shows the number of addresses that have accumulated a certain volume in a price range.
Typically, the higher the volume, the stronger the support or resistance. As shown below, 2.15 million Bitcoin addresses hold 1.27 million BTC in the above area. This volume is above the minor support at $60,666.
Therefore, Bitcoin price may struggle to reach $65,000 in the short term. Instead, a drop to $59,813 may be possible.
Interestingly, digital asset management firm 10x Research agrees that the $60,600 level is a minor resistance for BTC. In its latest report, it believes that Bitcoin price must clear $66,000 to have any chance of invalidating the current bearish case.
Marcus Thielen, Principal Analyst, wrote:
The liquidity cycle has not yet been fully realized. Bitcoin failed to break $66,000 in line with the descending resistance line, a level that could have been surpassed had the ISM manufacturing data been more positive.
