NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com)—As Bitcoin (BTC) enters Oct., some market analysts are preparing for a potential breakout. This month, often referred to as “Uptober” due to Bitcoin’s historically strong performance, has raised expectations for notable price movements. According to Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital, Bitcoin could rally to $78,000 this month, potentially setting a new all-time high.
History Favors Bitcoin (BTC) in “Uptober”
Bitcoin’s performance in October has consistently outshined other months over the past decade. QCP Capital noted that in eight out of the past nine years, Bitcoin has posted gains in October, averaging a return of 22.9%. This historical trend has fueled optimism that Bitcoin could break out of its current consolidation phase and surpass its previous all-time high of around $69,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) monthly returns. Credit: CoinGlass
Bitcoin (BTC) has spent most of the year trading between $60,000 and $70,000, consolidating its position while waiting for a catalyst to drive it higher. If the cryptocurrency follows its historical October trend and posts another 22.9% rise, it could easily push past its previous high and reach $78,000, marking a new milestone.
Strong Technical Indicators Signal Breakout Potential
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading just below $64,000, a resistance level near the top of a descending channel that has held for several months. If Bitcoin breaks through this level, it could target the $70,000 mark. Traders are also closely monitoring support at $61,000, where key moving averages—the 26 EMA, 100 EMA, and 200 EMA—have converged, creating a support zone.
BTC/USD 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView
Further supporting this potential rally, Bitcoin’s price is holding above these important moving averages. As long as Bitcoin remains above $61,000, the technical outlook suggests an upward move is possible.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo
CrypNuevo, a trader following these levels, noted the possibility of a breakout. He emphasized that reclaiming recent highs could present a strong opportunity for a long position targeting $67,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) 1-week chart. Source: Matthew Hyland
Despite possible short-term corrections, traders like Matthew Hyland maintain a positive long-term view. Hyland pointed out that a weekly close above $65,000 would signal a potential trend change by establishing a higher-high and higher low for the first time in over six months.
Looking ahead, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential for further gains in the final quarter of the year. Michaël van de Poppe, a crypto market commentator, suggested that Bitcoin could break its all-time high within the coming months, citing market trends and historical patterns.
Key Catalysts Driving the “Uptober” Outlook
Macroeconomic factors are shaping Bitcoin’s (BTC) outlook as Oct. begins, with U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s address on Sept. 30 being a key event. His remarks could offer signals about the Fed’s next interest rate move, influencing Bitcoin’s market performance.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
Following the Fed’s recent 0.5% rate cut, market participants are speculating about another reduction at the Nov. 7 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Current estimates show a 63.6% chance of a similar cut. Powell’s comments and U.S. unemployment data, which have impacted Bitcoin volatility this year, will be crucial in determining market direction.
Additionally, China’s efforts to kickstart its economy through sweeping stimulus measures have caught the attention of global traders. China recently posted five consecutive quarters of deflation, marking its longest streak since 1999. In response, the country has initiated stimulus efforts that are attracting capital back into equity markets.
Analysis of Fed rate cuts and job market trends. Source: Kobeissi
Kobeissi also noted, “We are seeing capital pile back into equity markets as stimulus kicks off,” which could spill over into Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Additionally, institutional interest in Bitcoin (BTC) continues to grow through spot Bitcoin ETFs, which are attracting new capital. As uncertainty persists in traditional markets, Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against economic instability could see further demand.
Above all, with the U.S. economic outlook unclear ahead of the FOMC meeting and China’s stimulus underway, Bitcoin is well-positioned to benefit from increased volatility and market shifts this month.
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