Analyst Says Bitcoin's Expected Rally Won't Come in October, Points to This Date! Explains Expectations

Investors, who have been struggling with declines since the all-time high (ATH) in March, are waiting for October, or "Uptober", for a rally in Bitcoin. While it is hoped that there will be strong increases in October and beyond, option investors have also started to move. However, it is predicted that this rise may be delayed a little longer.

According to Deribit data, investors have locked up more than $990 million in the $100,000 call option for Bitcoin. This makes the $100,000 call the most popular Bitcoin option on Deribit, while the $70,000 call option is second with more than $800 million in open interest.

“The highest open interest for Bitcoin across all expiration dates is seen at $100,000 and $70,000. Some market participants interpret this as supporting the prevailing bullish trend in the market,” Wintermute OTC Trader Jake Ostrovskis told Coindesk.

Ostrovskis noted that the most popular option for the Nov. 8 expiration date on the U.S. election is the $45,000 put option. He said the popularity of the $45,000 level is consistent with investors seeking downside protection ahead of an uncertain event, such as the election result.

Ostrovskis stated that the $45,000 put options with a November 8 expiration date and current volatility show a downward trend until the end of October and November, and that the current option situation will support a post-election rally, but a bull market may be experienced by the end of the year.

"The current level of volatility suggests a downward trend until late October-November when the market will start to favor call options over put protection. The current status of options suggests a recovery after the US elections."

Investors on Polymarket think that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of the year is low. According to Polymarket data, the "Yes" votes on the contract "Bitcoin to Reach $100,000 by 2024?" are around 15%, while investors state that the probability of "Bitcoin breaking the record high of $73,798 by the end of the year" is slightly above 50%.