Bitcoin ended up 7.29% in September this year, breaking the September curse that almost always fell in September, and Bitcoin usually performs well in October. Spot On Chain predicts that there is a 69% chance that Bitcoin will hit a record high this month, but ByteTree and Wintermute also warned against the bullish expectations in October.

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin has been cursed with a September fall in the past. From 2013 to mid-2023, Bitcoin fell eight times in September. However, it finally closed up 7.29% in September this year, marking its best September performance since 2013.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin usually rises in October, and an Uptober market will appear. From 2013 to mid-2023, Bitcoin only closed down twice in October, with the largest increase reaching 60.79% and an average increase of 22%. It closed up in September this year, which is expected to lay a strong foundation for an increase in October.

Image source: Coinglass

Will October usher in the Uptober market?

Lookonchain pointed out that historically, Bitcoin’s five bull markets all started in October, so this October’s performance is worth looking forward to.

Spot On Chain, which accurately predicted that Bitcoin would close higher in September this year, said that according to its model, the upward trend will continue in the fourth quarter, and October is expected to perform strongly. There is a 69% probability that Bitcoin will set a record high this month, and a 54% probability that the price of Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of the year.

In September this year, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the People's Bank of China all announced interest rate cuts to support economic growth. Benefiting from the global trend of interest rate cuts, investors responded to a looser monetary environment, pushing up the prices of stocks, gold and cryptocurrencies, and boosting bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

This October may be different

However, when the market is unanimously bullish, the opposite may often occur. Charlie Morris, founder of investment management company ByteTree, warned that the market's expectations for a strong performance in October are too common and may have an adverse impact on investors:

Contrarian investors will always be wary of an idea that is too common, because the prevalence of the idea means that money was invested before October.

However, ByteTree mentioned in the report that Bitcoin prices usually consolidate for about six months after halving and then hit a new high. The current trend also fits this pattern. Given that this year's halving occurred on April 19, if this pattern continues, Bitcoin is expected to break a new high by the end of October.

However, Jake Ostrovskis, an over-the-counter trader at cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute, noted that options traders expect Bitcoin to see a bigger rally after the U.S. presidential election in November, predicting further losses for Bitcoin in the coming weeks:

With spot prices below $65,000, the volatility surface suggests a downtrend into late October and November, when the market begins to favor call options over put protection, and current positioning suggests a post-election rally is on the horizon.