On National Day, I wish our motherland a happy birthday!
In September, BTC opened at 59k, peaked at 66.5k, bottomed at 52.5k, and closed at 63.5k, up 7.7%, breaking the trend of mostly falling prices in September. The 10-year agreement is that the B shares in September will not be skipped if they rise. The current holding cost is $44,176, with a floating profit of 39%.

In the final analysis, BTC hedges against macro liquidity expectations. The Fed's September FOMC meeting reversed expectations of dollar tightening and opened the curtain on the dollar's easing cycle. China did not wait for the dollar to come to its door, but as "9.30 Teaching Chain Insider: The Central Bank may not want excessive appreciation of the RMB" said, "preemptive" and "active attack", rushing to release policies before the National Day to reverse and boost the capital market. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a bottom of 2680.7 points when the Fed cut interest rates on September 18. In just 9 trading days, it had stood at 3336.5 points by the close of September 30 before the holiday, a surge of nearly 25%, which is a magnificent sight.

This has shocked many people who confidently and logically said that the US dollar liquidity created by the Fed's interest rate cuts will not flow to China. Of course, this is not the first time that they have been shocked.
Some foreign analysts point to the chart of falling Chinese housing prices and talk about economic recession, saying that the situation is even worse than Japan's and that it is too late to stimulate the economy now. They are looking in the rearview mirror and talking to themselves, and they don't understand what "a thousand sails pass by the side of the sunken boat, and a thousand trees bloom in front of the dead tree" means.

Anyone who knows the BTC cycle knows that in a truly free market, a 70-80% drop is needed to fully clear leverage, remove the poison from the bones, and re-enter a healthy recovery cycle. In the second half of 2011, the bear market fell by 99%. In the 2014-2015 bear market, the decline was 83%. In the 2018 bear market, the decline was over 80%. In the 2022 bear market, the decline was 77%.
Economics is actually quite schizophrenic. One theory says that when asset prices fall, there will be deflation and recession, and we must rush to rescue the market or even rescue it in advance. Another theory says that we should adopt a laissez-faire policy and let the market clear automatically, and then it will naturally turn to recovery.
Anyone who has taken care of a child with a fever knows that the care method for viral fever is to continuously monitor body temperature. If the fever exceeds 38 degrees, oral antipyretics and physical antipyretics should be used to control body temperature to prevent convulsions. After the fever subsides, drinking plenty of water will accelerate circulation and metabolism. This cycle should be repeated every few hours until the human immune system defeats the virus. Eventually, the fever becomes less severe and the body recovers.
Asset prices are like body temperature, and the economic system is like the human body. The sharp drop in asset prices is like a rapid rise in body temperature. It is not necessarily that the human body can no longer bear it and is immediately sent to the intensive care unit for various infusions. Instead, it is precisely a reflection of the normal functioning of the human immune system. The rise in body temperature is one of the mechanisms of the immune system to eliminate viruses. The fall in asset prices is also one of the mechanisms of the economic system to eliminate bad leverage. Children who receive infusions as soon as they have a fever have poor resistance because their immune systems are always not exercised, and they are particularly prone to illness.
On the other hand, although nursing only provides support to sustain life, it is ultimately up to the human body to defeat the virus. But this does not mean that the care of reducing fever and drinking water is not important, and that the child can be left there to fend for himself. Although fever is the mechanism by which the immune system fights against viruses, if the battle is so intense that it is about to backfire on the body, such as a high fever that damages the brain, then good care is needed to intervene and reduce the fever at the right time. After all, what we want is a living child, not just a dead virus.
The capital market, as a complex system, is actually similar to a child.
The U.S. stock market is a delicate child. Even if it sneezes, Wall Street will force the Federal Reserve to quickly arrange a special nursing ward, inject various medicines, and even directly use hormones.
A-shares are not so delicate, so they seem a bit unfriendly. If the fever is not high, just lie down first, and don't rush to give medicine even if you cry and make a fuss. If the fever reaches a certain level (for example, it falls below 3,000 points), you will be given some antipyretic medicine (the national team absorbs funds at the bottom but does not pull up the market).
BTC is a wild child that eats from many families. It is not loved by its uncles and grandmas. It has to bear all the illnesses and fevers by itself. But this has created its unique strong body and unrivaled immunity.
Zhongfang was originally a precious child, like the US stock market, carefully cared for by its parents. If you put it in your hand, you're afraid it will fall, and if you hold it on your tongue, you're afraid it will melt. But in this cycle, the old and new kinetic energy are changing, and it has lost the treatment of special care, so it suddenly has to rely on its own immunity to bear it. Once the princess sleeps on a commoner's plank bed, even if there is a pea under the quilt, it will hurt.
To raise a healthy child, I am afraid you cannot rely on a special ward, but on daily exercise. This is a very common truth that everyone understands, but once it is packaged in economic terms, it suddenly becomes confusing.