Solana (SOL) loyalists believe that the blockchain will replace Ethereum; thus, comparisons to Ether are inevitable after Ether (ETH) fell to a three-and-a-half-year low against Bitcoin (BTC), a level last seen in 2021. The main question is whether Solana can hold its own against Bitcoin or will it lose momentum similar to Ether.
Analysts have mixed views on Solana’s next move. While some predict a drop, others believe a breakout is possible. In a September 20 post on X, veteran analyst Peter Brandt said that if Solana holds the $120 support level, it could be primed for a “big move.”
VanEck also has a positive view on Solana. In a September 25 report, the firm predicted that Solana would hit $330, a 50% increase from Ether’s current market capitalization. However, the report also noted that institutional investors have been slow to recognize the advantages of Solana, possibly due to a reluctance to move away from blue-chip coins like Ether.
Solana also has to keep an eye on emerging competition that could push it out of the top layer-1 network position to replace Ethereum. According to analysts at K33 Research, Sui Network could become a rival to Solana.
Can Solana hold its own against Bitcoin or will it fall like Ether? Let's analyze the SOL/BTC chart to find out.
SOL/BTC Weekly Analysis
This pair has formed a symmetrical triangle, which usually acts as a continuation pattern. When the price has increased before the triangle is formed, the possibility of a breakout is higher.
However, the flat 20-week exponential moving average (0.0023 BTC) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage to either the bulls or the bears.
If the bulls sustain the price above the 20-week EMA, the SOL/BTC pair could attempt a breakout above the resistance line. If successful, the pair could start the next move towards 0.0031 BTC and then the pattern target at 0.0039 BTC.
This bullish view would be invalidated in the short term if the price turns bearish and breaks below the triangle. That could push the pair down to 0.0018 BTC and then 0.0013 BTC.
SOL/BTC Daily Chart Analysis
In a triangle, the price often fluctuates between support and resistance lines. The pair bounced off the support line on September 18 and rose above the moving averages on September 26.
Buyers will try to push the price to the resistance line, where sellers are likely to step in. If the price turns down from the resistance line but bounces from the 20-day EMA (0.0023 BTC), the possibility of a breakout above the triangle increases.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, it suggests that the pair could extend its stay within the triangle. The bias will tilt towards the bears if the price breaks below the support line.
It is very difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with certainty. Therefore, it is better to wait for the breakout to happen before placing a large bet.
