Historically, October has been a favorable month for the markets, often witnessing rebounds after volatile September trading. In 2024, the market is in a bottoming phase, meaning it could stabilize and potentially recover after the significant sell-offs seen recently. However, the macro environment remains challenging, with the U.S. economy facing uncertainty from rising energy prices, potential global geopolitical risks, and ongoing inflation concerns. These factors are likely to contribute to continued market volatility, especially as the cryptocurrency market closely follows U.S. stock trends.
For October, watch for:
Federal Reserve Stance (Tuesday, October 1, 2024): Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the National Association for Business Economics at 02:00 UTC. Any hints regarding future interest rate decisions, such as pausing hikes or cutting rates, could influence risk-on sentiment across both stock and crypto markets.
Labor Market Data (Friday, October 4, 2024): The release of U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data will be crucial. Strong employment figures may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain or even tighten monetary policy. Conversely, weaker data could lead to more dovish shifts, potentially supporting market growth.
October Volatility: Historically, October has been a favorable month for markets, but ongoing macroeconomic pressures, including inflation concerns and global geopolitical risks, mean volatility could persist. Expect increased movement, particularly around key data releases and policy speeches.
Overall, October 2024 presents opportunities for a potential market recovery, though risks remain from both economic data and broader geopolitical developments.
