Solana (SOL) has struggled to break above the $160 level over the past two months, failing repeatedly. However, many in the market believe that “Uptober” could finally see this move happen.

Bullish expectations could push SOL’s price up by 20%, potentially bringing it closer to the $200 mark – a significant psychological barrier.

Solana about to take off?

Solana’s price action depends on several factors, but the most important ones are signals from the broader market. In an interview with BeInCrypto, Bill Qian, president of Cypher Capital, discussed how lack of liquidity is a key concern.

“Solana has been stuck in a consolidation phase between $186 and $120, largely due to insufficient liquidity in the broader crypto market. While the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle could provide some additional liquidity in October, this alone may not be enough to break Solana out of its range. A more significant catalyst would be the onset of an altseason, where speculative funds and attention shift from other chains to the Solana ecosystem. If capital and attention from other chains are absorbed by Solana’s vibrant DeFi, NFT, and gaming sectors, the possibility of breaking out of its consolidation range increases significantly,” Qian told BeInCrypto.

Read more: Altseason: what it is and how to take advantage of the altcoin bull cycle

Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21.co, in an interview with BeInCrypto, further expanded on the potential for a rally stemming from Solana’s development as well as macro financial market signals.

“Solana was on track to retest the $200 level before the Japanese Yen unwind and other adverse macro catalysts roiled the market. However, with the Federal Reserve expected to continue cutting interest rates, including two more reductions projected before the end of the year, renewed risk sentiment could bring liquidity to the market, creating a more favorable environment for risk assets like Solana.

“In addition, the recent mainnet launch of the Frankendancer client and the anticipated 2025 launch of Firedancer, which has achieved over 1,000,000 tps on testnet, represent significant technical advancements that reinforce Solana’s position as a high-performance Layer 1 blockchain. Firedancer is expected to increase Solana’s processing capacity and enhance the network’s validator client diversity, significantly improving its resilience against attacks and bugs. These upgrades could reignite investor interest and position Solana as a strong bullish candidate, making a retest of the $200 level increasingly likely,” Mena told BeInCrypto.

Indicators predict high

Furthermore, the price action is showing positive signs. The MACD indicator suggests that bullish momentum has been building since late September. This momentum is expected to last for 42 days, giving SOL enough room to move significantly higher in October.

Historically, when this type of bullish momentum sets in, the altcoin experiences sustained upward movements. If this trend follows previous patterns, SOL could rise to $186 by the end of October, providing a strong recovery opportunity for investors.

Solana (SOL) Chart on TradingView

Read more: How to Buy Solana (SOL) and Everything You Need to Know

Price forecast

Solana is currently trading at $155 and is testing this level as support. The main barrier remains $160, a resistance that has held strong for the past two months. If the price manages to close above $160, it will be a significant achievement, indicating a possible bullish move.

In this case, SOL could head towards $186 if this rally occurs, a level last tested in August. Breaking this resistance could trigger a rally towards $200, a critical milestone. This would represent a 20% increase, in line with the overall bullish sentiment surrounding the token in October.

Solana (SOL) Chart on TradingView

However, failure to break above the $160 resistance could lead to a sharp pullback. In such a scenario, Solana could drop to $138, retesting this lower support level and invalidating the bullish outlook.

The article What to expect from Solana (SOL) in October? – Analysis appeared first on BeInCrypto Brasil.