With Israel's major incursion into Lebanon, including the use of armored vehicles and the deaths of Hezbollah leaders, tensions in the Middle East have reached a critical point. The conflict could have a significant impact on global markets. Let's look at two possible scenarios.
Worst case scenario:
A major escalation with active Iranian intervention and increased regional tensions, leading to long-term volatility in the stock and crypto markets. In this case, there is panic among investors who begin to sell assets en masse.
Probability: 70%
Best scenario:
Local de-escalation after international mediation or rapid Israeli success, which will avoid a larger conflict. Markets may temporarily fall, but then stabilize. In this case, it is better to hold assets and wait for a recovery.
Probability: 30%
Recommendations:
If the situation continues to escalate, a temporary sell-off of assets is possible for subsequent buy-back on the decline. If de-escalation begins, it makes sense to hold positions, waiting for recovery.
