After reaching a new all-time high in March, Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to recover from a downtrend for a long time. After falling below $50,000 in early August, BTC managed to stay above the $60,000 level after the Fed announced its first interest rate cut in September.
At this point, Bitcoin is expected to record a gain of at least 9% in September. Having only seen positive growth in September twice since 2013, Bitcoin’s gains this month would defy its long-term negative trend and surpass the eight times it has closed the month with a decline since 2013.
As September comes to an end and October, commonly known as Bitcoin’s “Uptober” month, is just around the corner, let’s look at the questions “Does Bitcoin like October?” and “How did it perform in previous Octobers?”
Bitcoin’s Previous October Performance
When we look at Bitcoin's annual and monthly performance, we can see that declines are concentrated in certain periods and increases are concentrated in certain periods. When we examine the monthly return table, we can say that March, August and September are generally the months of decline; February, July, October and November are the months of increase.
According to historical data, unlike September, Bitcoin has closed only two Octobers with losses since 2013, while it has completed nine Octobers with gains, achieving gains of up to 60%. This has increased investors’ expectations for October.
Bitcoin is expected to continue its upward trend from October, despite starting the new week with a decline. Speaking to Coindesk, SOFA’s Augustine Fan said that the macroeconomic environment will continue to be supportive for the cryptocurrency market, adding:
“We believe that the friendly macro backdrop will continue to be a strong tailwind for crypto prices in Q4, given the high correlation of cryptocurrencies with macro assets, especially the SPX. Furthermore, Kamala Harris’ campaign mentions of cryptocurrencies and investors’ tendency to buy lows make us remain optimistic about price gains in the near term.”
