On Monday (September 30), the price of Bitcoin collapsed in the short term and fell below $64,500. As China's stock market recorded its biggest increase since 2015, USDT stablecoin/RMB was trading at a "discount", which usually indicates bearish sentiment in cryptocurrencies, and more funds seem to be flowing into Asian risk assets. The whale that has been sleeping for 10.8 years has just awakened and transferred 50 bitcoins.
The number of developers tracked by Bloomberg Industry Research soared 11%. After China introduced its economic stimulus plan last week, the US media released an important signal that A-shares seem to be ready to enter a bull market cycle.
At the same time, by studying China's demand for stablecoins, the market can judge whether investors are entering or exiting the cryptocurrency market. Typically, excessive demand causes stablecoins to trade at a price 1.5% or more higher than the official US dollar exchange rate, while bear markets lead to discounts.
China's USDT premium has been below parity for the past two weeks, indicating bearish sentiment. This indicator contradicts recent U.S. interest in bitcoin spot ETFs, further reinforcing bears’ arguments for insufficient investor demand
The lack of investor confidence is also evident in the bitcoin futures market, even in the monthly contracts that are typically favored by whales and institutional investors because they do not have volatile funding rates. In neutral markets, these derivative contracts tend to trade at an annualized premium of 5% to 10% to compensate for their long settlement period.
