24/09/30 As the prophecy came true, the "black swan" suddenly attacked, fiercely selling off the Japanese stock market, BTC stagnated and fell rapidly to 64,000
On September 28, the Japanese yen staged a "big reversal", and the exchange rate against the US dollar soared sharply. The Nikkei 225 index futures once fell by more than 2,000 points, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism. The probability of interest rate hikes increased. The Japanese yen carry trade has not yet ended. The US money market fund recorded a net outflow of funds for the first time in 9 weeks. Remind that you need to be highly vigilant. If there is one, there will be two or even three. This is the way of heaven and cannot be changed by human will. I hope you don’t take the opportunity to cause trouble! ! !
Although the Nikkei index has rebounded well since the plunge on August 5, it has been fluctuating at a high level for 7 months after setting a historical high. It cannot be ruled out that there will be a second or even a third August 5 plunge (this is the original analysis in the article on the 24th). As of the time of writing, the Tokyo Nikkei index plummeted 1,947 points, a drop of 4.89%, in the early trading on September 30.
Bitcoin fell 1,800 points in the morning, a drop of 3.14%, and fell back below 65,000. Now it has just stepped back on the W neckline. If it continues to fall below here, there is a possibility of a false breakthrough. Ethereum reminded yesterday that the 4H short-term top divergence and rebound again, if it still cannot break through 2,800, the probability of a callback is relatively high, and the cottage retracement will be even greater.
Flatbread
Bitcoin fell to 64,000, and the daily stagflation MACD showed a top divergence. The RSI fell back to the overbought zone, and the KDJ crossed downward at a high level. This is also a reminder of the continuous top divergence in the 4-hour period. We need to pay attention to whether it will be transmitted to the daily line. Currently, it has fallen back to the neckline support of 64,000. At present, there are signs of an M head on the daily line, which requires prevention.
The 4-hour chart shows a drop below the rising channel. We will first look at a pullback to the 60,600-62,000 support level. If the U.S. stock market opens sharply lower tonight or breaks below the previously broken historical high platform, a global black swan event may occur (just pay attention to whether there will be a false breakthrough in the U.S. stock market).
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ether
Ethereum's early morning rebound was stronger than Bitcoin's. The ETH/BTC exchange rate fell back to 0.040 for a rebound. In the 4-hour period, it is still near the rising channel. Pay attention to whether the 1-hour downward trend can break through and how high the rebound can go.
The small-level divergence continues, and we also need to pay attention to whether Bitcoin will continue to fall in conjunction with Ethereum. The support below is 2556 and 2500.
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$BTC $ETH $SOL #HMSTR开盘 #非农就业数据即将公布 #币安上线EIGEN #美国8月核心PCE创4月以来新高
