Bitcoin (BTC) heads into the end of an uncharacteristically bullish “Rektember” up around 9% as anticipation of further BTC price gains builds.
A sell-off into the weekly close sees Bitcoin still preserving the majority of reclaimed support from last week.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell takes to the stage to start the week as markets square off over the size of November’s interest rate cut.
2024 may still mark Bitcoin’s best September on record, while “Uptober” typically promises 23% upside.
Retail interest in Bitcoin and crypto is edging back to the forefront, as measured by downloads of the Coinbase app.
Whales in the market for more than a few months are resisting the urge to take profits on the BTC positions.
$64K support retest fails to dent Bitcoin bulls’ confidence
In contrast to the past two weeks, Bitcoin saw a sell-off into the Sept. 29 weekly close as support in the mid-$64,000 range came in for a retest.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows local lows of $64,198 on Bitstamp before a modest recovery.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
With the monthly close now in sight, popular trader CrypNuevo, who predicted the comedown, was among those looking for a fresh long BTC position going forward.
“We could see some volatility related to the monthly close,” he acknowledged in a dedicated thread on X alongside a print of the 4-hour chart.
“So it's possible a sweep of the highs by then, that could get reversed back to support. From support, if we go up again and reclaim the highs, that's a long for me until the 2nd resistance.”
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X
CrypNuevo noted liquidity on exchange order books potentially favoring a trip toward $67,000 to come.
“Losing support will take us to the downside liquidations,” he added.
BTC liquidation heatmap (Binance). Source: CrypNuevo/X
An optimistic Matthew Hyland meanwhile suggested that even a deeper BTC price correction would not mean the end of Bitcoin’s comeback on longer timeframes.
“If Bitcoin closes the weekly above $65k we will have established a higher-high and higher-low for the first time in 6+ months and established a trend change,” he told X followers.
“Dips going forward would be opportunity and bias must shift to bullish. Anything pullback $52.6k is just a higher-low.”
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/X
Markets eye Powell, US unemployment data
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kicks off the macroeconomic week with a speaking appearance on Sept. 30.
Attending the National Association for Business Economics conference, Powell will be keenly watched for signals about the Fed’s next interest rate move.
After a surprise 0.5% cut this month, markets are eyeing a repeat performance at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Nov. 7. The likelihood of this can change significantly, however, depending on Powell’s tone and macro data trends.
This week, unemployment figures take center stage, these already known as a Bitcoin volatility catalyst in 2024.
Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter considered the chances of the Fed being “behind the curve” in lowering rates.
“Falling rates initially did not work to prop up the economy as it takes 6 to 24 months for the effects to be felt,” it noted on X.
Kobeissi, however, is among those arguing that even the initial 0.5% decrease was going too far.
According to the latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, however, another 0.5% cut is in the lead for November on 52.2%.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
Elsewhere, China embarking on sweeping economic stimulus measures is a topic firmly on risk-asset traders’ radar.
“China just posted 5 straight quarters of deflation, the longest streak since 1999,” Kobeissi said on the topic.
“Now, we are seeing capital pile back into equity markets as stimulus kicks off.”
Not such a “Rektember” after all?
While flagging slightly into the monthly close, Bitcoin is still looking at its best September performance on record.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows the striking contrast between 2024 and a typical September for BTC/USD.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Over the past ten years, Bitcoin ob average has tended to end the month down 3.6%, while at present, bulls are looking at around 9% gains.
Moving forward, there are even more exciting times lying in wait for bulls: October, known in crypto circles as “Uptober” thanks to its typically impressive market performance, is almost here.
Source: BitcoinHyper
CoinGlass reveals a tough challenge for BTC/USD next month — average October upside is nearly 23%.
From current levels, this would mean a new all-time high — something that commentators nonetheless entertain as a distinct possibility.
“Altcoins are ready to do a 3-5x run, while Bitcoin is likely to break the all-time high coming quarter, following Gold,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe forecast in one of his latest X posts.
Since 2013, there have only been two “red” October months, these seeing maximum losses of just under 13%.
Coinbase bounces back
A key element of BTC price action since March’s all-time has been a preciptious drop in retail investor participation.
Interest among mainstream consumers fell significantly as Bitcoin and crypto retraced in the half year that followed. Now, however, change may well be afoot.
As Cointelegraph reported, exchanges and trading are slowly headed back into the mainstream consciousness, as evidenced by downloads of one app in particular — that of largest US trading platform Coinbase.
On Sept. 28, the Coinbase app ranked among the top 400 on the Apple AppStore, while research shows that once it reaches the top 200, bull market conditions tend to be in full swing.
“In other words, more people started downloading the app when bitcoin was testing all time highs (November 2020 at $20k, and March 2024 at $69-74K),” its author, analytics account Bitcoindata21, wrote in an X post earlier this month.
Bitcoindata21 likewise noted that when Coinbase is outside the top-500 most popular apps, crypto markets tend to be in a bearish phase.
“Most importantly, the app reached no.1 in December 2017, April 2021, and November 2021…,” they concluded.
Coinbase app downloads. Source: Bitcoindata21/X
The Coinbase premium, meanwhile, which measures the difference in exchange prices between Coinbase’s BTC/USD pair and the BTC/USDT on largest global exchange Binance, is now positive again.
Young whales show their colors
When it comes to market moves originating from large-volume investors, onchain data suggests that a new trend is emerging.
In one of its Quicktake blog posts on Sept. 27, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant drew a distinction between old and new Bitcoin whales.
“Over the past month, whales with over 155 days of inactivity have been less dominant in profit-taking as the price of bitcoin has recovered,” contributor Cauê Oliveira revealed.
“On the other hand, new whales have been actively taking profits, indicating that the interest in closing positions is predominant among institutional players who have entered the market in the past 5-6 months.”
Bitcoin whale realized profits (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
An accompanying chart showed realized profits by whale cohort — and old hands remain firmly entrenched in their positions.
“Old institutional investors have been more dominant in the first half of the year, with high levels of profit-taking, but now appear to be waiting for a more favorable market for their positions,” Oliveira added.
“This may be reducing selling pressure at this point, providing room for the price to build a more positive structure in this recovery.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
