0.25BTC may be what ordinary people are worth pursuing and possibly locking in. It doesn’t matter how much pie we have now. What matters is whether we still have 1/4 of the pie in our hands after several years?
This may also be the last ten years for ordinary people.
If Bitcoin is not replaced or reset to zero in the next few decades, then normally, except for a very small number of people, the remaining 99.9% of people will have less and less Bitcoin. According to the history of the past 15 years, no matter how well an entrepreneur’s entrepreneurial project is done, how beautiful the performance is, and how high the valuation is, their fiat currency can no longer be exchanged for the same amount of Bitcoin at the beginning. Except for CZ, Sun Ge and other outstanding people, the remaining 99.9% of entrepreneurs cannot outperform Bitcoin. Bitcoin is destined to be a passerby in everyone’s hands.
Assuming that the total output of Bitcoin = 21 million, it is estimated that 3 million Bitcoins have been permanently lost over the years, and this number will only continue to increase. Then we assume that the total amount of Bitcoins that can be used in the future is 18 million. My algorithm is relatively simple: First, according to the 80/20 rule, most of them will be held tightly in the hands of "early participants + regimes + super-rich people", but they will be continuously diluted due to price increases. Even if it is not 80%, at least 40% will not be able to escape, and the remaining 60%, 10.8 million Bitcoins, will be distributed to latecomers.
China's 1.4 billion people account for 17.5% of the earth's 8 billion people, and there are 1.89 million Bitcoins. Assuming that only five super-populated cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chengdu, are considered, the five cities will share 378,000 Bitcoins, and each city has a permanent population of about 20 million. Only 378,000 people hold 1 Bitcoin, ranking in the top 1.89%. Those who understand the mathematical power law distribution and long tail theory will know that this average value is absolutely impossible. There will be many people at the top of the ranking, and there will be very few people in the middle and the back, so this one coin will definitely rank far more than 1.89%.
If Bitcoin really becomes the "anchor" mentioned by the Nine Gods, one Bitcoin is absolutely enough. If you are greedy, you can hoard a few more. If you are not greedy or your ability is limited, half a coin or 0.25 coins are enough. If you are just passing, 0.1 coin is enough!
