It was completely crazy. Many people have lived for decades in China's asset market and have never seen such a scene. In just four days, A shares rose from 2700 points to 3270 points. The stock trading system of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was directly shut down. The long queues in front of brokerage institutions to open accounts were endless. Many people didn't even want the stock market to rest during the National Day holiday. It was really out of the blue. It is said that in just four days, A-share investors made an average of 47,000 yuan per person, which is an unprecedented event. Seeing this scene makes people curious, why did this happen? What kind of game is behind it? Today I will spend a few minutes to explain this issue.

First of all, the first level of game is a nuclear bomb-level trick to stimulate the economy. Everyone knows that the past two years have been a period of spiral decline in Chinese assets. Whether it is the real estate market, the stock market, funds or doing business, it is basically difficult to make money. Under such a background, the whole society has seen a clear consumption downgrade. Everyone is holding their purses tightly. No one is spending money, so that there are signs of deflation in the country for a time, which is a very dangerous signal. So from top to bottom, everyone hopes that the top leaders can give money by releasing water, which is the most effective way to solve the problem. But two years have passed, and we have not seen particularly obvious rescue measures. The reason is very simple, because the Federal Reserve is hanging high above the head of the interest rate hike. Once we take the initiative to release water, the further widening of the interest rate gap between China and the United States will follow, and capital will flee crazily for profit. Therefore, even in the past two years, no matter how difficult it was, we did not choose to release water.

But on September 19, everything changed. The United States took the initiative to cut interest rates. When the Fed's interest rate cut channel was officially opened, our policy operation space immediately became smooth. Gradually, money was released, and issuing money became an operational thing. This is why I have been emphasizing the importance of the Fed's interest rate cut in the past few months. Since the release of money has been chosen and can be implemented, the next thing to consider is where to put the money. As we all know, China has three major capital plates that can take on a large amount of funds, namely real estate, real economy and stock market. Can it be put into the real estate sector? The answer is no. The reason is very simple, because China's real estate market has completed its historical mission, and if it is put into it again, no one can bear it. So why can't it be put directly into the real economy? Because of the previous pessimistic expectations, many companies dare not expand production. Even if banks keep lowering loan interest rates, they dare not borrow money. In such an environment, money can't flow into the real economy at all. So, after thinking about it, the most suitable place to undertake this round of large-scale money release is the stock market. The reason is that the total market value of the Chinese stock market is very low, and only 1/5 of the US stock market has room to absorb funds. Secondly, the stock market is usually regarded as the economy. It is a barometer. Regardless of whether this conclusion is right or not, many people think so. So when the stock price goes up, it will help to enhance the confidence of the people and foreign investors in the Chinese economy. In addition, a large part of the people who trade stocks in China are middle-class people with good incomes, because people with really low incomes will not buy stocks, and they will not even open an account.

So, this round of stock market surge is actually equivalent to the state giving money to the middle class. I know some people will not accept it and will leave a message saying that my monthly salary is 3,000 yuan, why can't I be given money directly? Ah, do you look down on me? In fact, it is really not what you think. Generally speaking, we rarely give money directly. Except for the really difficult groups, such as those with zero income or a few hundred yuan a month, the state will use cash to cover the bottom line, because some of these people are 70 years old, some are disabled or five-guarantee households. They cannot participate in social activities and cannot share the dividends of the state's release of water, so they can only use money to guarantee their basic living. But for other groups in society, the state. If he wants to issue it, he will do it through financial means, such as lowering interest rates, reducing mortgages, issuing consumer coupons, issuing subsidies for old-for-new exchanges, etc. However, this time the release of money is different. As for the local treatment, the state is using real money to support the stock market. 800 billion yuan is directly invested, and it can be added later, and there is no upper limit. In this way, many middle-class stockholders can directly enjoy the benefits. When the middle class gets the money, their willingness to consume will be restored, and their money will flow to other areas of society, such as going to restaurants more often, buying more draft beer, buying two more games, going on more trips, etc., so that people who are not involved in the stock market can also indirectly enjoy this wave of dividends. So don’t say that a monthly salary of 3,000 has nothing to do with you. As long as you are still participating in the social division of labor, it must be related to you. After reading this, everyone will understand what the main idea of ​​this round of economic stimulus is. The first step is for the financial department to set the tone for monetary easing, the second step is for the central bank to implement it, the third step is for the stock market to take over the funds, the fourth step is for shareholders to get dividends first, the fifth step is for other social groups to benefit together, and the sixth step is to finally revitalize the Chinese economy. This is our first level of game, and it is also a nuclear-level trick to stimulate the economy. But the truth is far from that simple. We also have a more long-term second game, which is to attract foreign investment back to China.According to the prediction of international organizations, with the Fed's interest rate cut, more than 1 trillion US dollars will flow back to China, and more than 2 trillion US dollars of foreign exchange funds will be suspended overseas waiting for the opportunity. The reason why this money did not come back before is that in the past two years, the returns on doing anything in our country were not high, so they would rather float abroad than bring the funds back. In this way, a magical scene appeared, that is, China's foreign trade has been rising steadily and breaking historical records, but domestic consumption is sluggish, and there is a shortage of money everywhere. What is the root cause of the problem? It is that the returns on China's financial market are too low, so it is impossible to attract foreign investment. Now with the Fed's interest rate cut, a large amount of US dollar funds are about to flow out. If we want these funds to invest in China, we must make them believe that they can make money in China. So we must find a way to pull up the stock market, and then make them believe that investing in China is safe. Why does no one dare to invest in Ukraine now? Because there is a war there, if you invest today, it will go to waste tomorrow. So the same logic applies. If you want foreign capital to flow into China, the premise is that China is safe enough and there will be no risk of war. This is one of the important reasons why Dongfeng Accounting received revenue from the Pacific on September 25. It was to show global capital, telling them that it is safe here and to quickly boost our economy. And this is only the second layer of this round of game. There is a third layer hidden in the deepest part, which is to hedge the pressure of RMB appreciation. As we all know, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar broke seven two days ago. This is a major manifestation of foreign capital's optimism about the Chinese economy, indicating that everyone is ready to start suppressing China, so the RMB exchange rate will soar. If the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, the RMB will continue to rise in the future, but at this stage, the RMB exchange rate has risen too much, which is actually not conducive to China's industrial upgrading and commodity exports, so we must find a way to control the speed of the rise. What can we do? The answer is to use water to hedge the pressure of RMB appreciation. When there are more RMB on the market, the exchange rate will come down. The purpose of doing this is to take the initiative of the rise and fall of the RMB exchange rate into our own hands. We can adjust it according to the rhythm of our industrial upgrading. This is the best outcome.So why did asset prices surge in the past few days? Because this is a long-planned grand strategy, waiting for the Fed's official deadlock. Otherwise, you can't explain why there are such intensive policy adjustments in just a few days. This shows that we have already prepared the ammunition and are just waiting for an intensive opportunity. Even the Dongfeng Express falling into the Pacific Ocean is not just aimed at the scoundrels, but also to tell everyone that China's economic counterattack has officially begun. #非农就业数据即将公布 #美国8月核心PCE创4月以来新高 #美联储11月降息预期升温 #鄂B炒家