According to the CME "Fed Watch" data on September 30, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in November is 52.2%, while the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 47.8%. Looking ahead to December, the market expects a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut of 23.5%, a cumulative probability of a 75 basis point cut of 50%, and a cumulative probability of a 100 basis point cut of 26.6%.

These data reflect the market's expectations for the Fed's future monetary policy, especially in the current economic environment, where investors generally believe that the Fed may adopt a more relaxed monetary policy to cope with potential economic slowdowns or financial market fluctuations. Over time, changes in expectations of interest rate cuts may have important implications for the stock, bond and crypto markets.

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