Author: Rakesh Upadhyay, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Baishui, Golden Finance
ETH has been significantly underperforming Bitcoin. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap hit its lowest point against Bitcoin in three and a half years on September 18, with the last time this low was in 2021. The big question is whether this low provides a buying opportunity or will Ether continue to underperform.
Bitcoin has been trading sideways for several months, but some analysts expect prices to break out of that range and hit new all-time highs in the fourth quarter of this year.
However, analysts do not expect the same to happen with Ether, which is currently trading well below its all-time high. Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, shows an 85% chance that Ether will not hit a new all-time high in 2024.
A daily view of cryptocurrency market data. Source: Coin360
It’s not all gloom and doom for Ethereum bulls. The chief investment officer (CIO) of Bitwise Asset Management said in a blog post on Sept. 17 that Ethereum could be a “potential contrarian bet by year end.”
Can Ethereum stage a comeback and outperform Bitcoin? Let’s analyze the Ethereum chart relative to Bitcoin to find out.
ETH/BTC Weekly Price Analysis
The long-term chart of the trading pair shows the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern, which shows indecision between the bulls and the bears. The bulls are defending the support line, while the bears are making a strong defense at the resistance line.
ETH/BTC weekly chart. Source: TradingView
Both moving averages are trending down and the relative strength index (RSI) is close to the oversold zone, which shows that bears are in command. The ETH/BTC pair could drop to the support line, where buyers are expected to step in.
If the price rebounds from the support line and breaks above the moving averages, it will indicate that the trading pair might stay inside the triangle for a while. The next trending move could start with a breakout above or below the triangle. A bounce above the triangle gives the pair a pattern target of 0.18 BTC, which is above the current all-time high of 0.15 BTC.
ETH/BTC Daily Price Analysis
The pair has been trading inside a descending channel for a few months, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows.
ETH/BTC daily chart. Source: TradingView
A minor positive for the bulls is that the RSI has seen a positive divergence and the 20-day exponential moving average (0.04 BTC) has started to flatten out. This suggests that the selling pressure could be easing.
A breakout and close above the 50-day simple moving average (0.04 BTC) will signal the start of a move towards the downtrend line. The pair will signal a change in trend if it breaks out and closes above the channel.
This positive view will be invalidated in the short term if the price continues lower and breaks below 0.038 BTC. This could potentially drop the pair to the support line of the channel.
