In 2014, Zhao Changpeng, who is known as the "richest Chinese" in the cryptocurrency circle, sold his property in Shanghai and used all the funds to buy Bitcoin. In less than a year, the price of Bitcoin plummeted by half, while the housing price in Shanghai doubled. Despite the heavy losses, Zhao Changpeng not only did not collapse, but instead believed more firmly in the future of Bitcoin.

This time, the central bank's large-scale money release has indeed attracted widespread attention. I also have some of my own views on the current situation.

### Exchange rate:

The RMB does not have the conditions for long-term appreciation. At present, foreign trade continues to shrink, and the outflow of foreign capital has not changed. Therefore, the appreciation of the RMB due to short-term policy benefits alone is unlikely to last. In the short term, the RMB may reach around 6.95, but it still needs to be cautious in the long run.

### Stock market:

In the long run, I am conservative about the A-share market. Although the rebound driven by policies can bring short-term opportunities, the fundamental problems have not been solved. There may still be room for upward movement in the short term, perhaps reaching 3,500 points. However, those who call for 4,000 or 5,000 points should be careful. This rebound is more policy-driven, and the timing of exit is particularly important.

### Real estate market:

After several rounds of sharp rises, China's real estate market is currently in a deep correction phase. Housing prices in cities such as Shenzhen and Hangzhou, where leveraged real estate speculation has fallen, and the imbalance between supply and demand is obvious. Considering policy changes and the economic environment, this large-scale release of money may only ease the pressure on the housing market in the short term, but the long-term trend is still not optimistic. I personally think that housing prices in core cities will stabilize, but the possibility of a sharp rise is extremely low, and there is a risk of further decline.

### Investment advice:

From the perspective of risk aversion, it is not recommended to speculate in stocks or real estate at present. In terms of capital protection, it is recommended to consider converting some US dollars or US dollar assets. If you are worried about foreign exchange controls, you can also consider buying physical gold. In the current environment, gold can not only avoid the exchange rate risk of the RMB, but also play a certain hedging role against geopolitical risks.

It is worth noting that the current prices of BTC and ETH are attractive, and I have already bought them in full. The target price for BTC is first $80,000, and for ETH at least $5,000.