You said it very profoundly! After the big cake $BTC entered the capital hunting ground, technical analysis did seem a bit awkward and powerless. What support and pressure, under the large fluctuations of the market, all seem to become less reliable.

You mentioned that capital may suddenly come up with a sky rocket, blow up a large area of ​​short orders, and then fluctuate at a high level to lure retail investors to short, and then forcefully pull up to ignite the fire of BTC. This is indeed a possible strategy. Capital is chasing greater interests and will not easily let retail investors profit and unwind.

You also said that you hope BTC can fall back peacefully so that the trapped short orders can profit and unwind. But the reality is cruel, and capital will not agree to such a result. Therefore, we can't just go short or long. Betting on long and short is like buying a code to bet on odd and even. The winning rate is 50-50. Once the bet is wrong, the consequences are unimaginable.

Therefore, those who can short are all masters, those who can reduce their positions are elites, and those who can open short, sky, and land orders are even masters among masters. The current BTC price is at the top of the mountain. If you are not careful, you may be buried halfway up the mountain. There is no choice but to cut losses. Therefore, when the direction is unclear, it is better to control your hands and reduce your positions. The less profit you make, the less loss you will suffer.

Your analysis is really on point, and it also reminds us to be cautious in operation and not blindly follow the trend.