Compiled by: GaryMa Wu Talks Blockchain

summary
Wu said this week's macro indicators and analysis: Last week, the US second quarter GDP was slightly higher than expected, PCE was in line with expectations, and the attitude of Federal Reserve officials generally expected another 50 basis points cut in interest rates this year; this week's focus will be on the US September unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data.

Last week review

  • The final annualized quarterly growth rate of U.S. real GDP in the second quarter was 3%, slightly higher than the expected 2.9%. The previously announced revised value was 3% and the initial value was 2.8%.

  • The final annualized quarterly rate of the U.S. PCE price index in the second quarter was 2.5%, the same as previously estimated; the final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index was 2.8%, the same as expected and the previously announced revised value, and the initial value was 2.9%.

  • The U.S. core PCE price index was 2.7% year-on-year in August, in line with expectations of 2.70%.

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its hawkish stance unchanged for the seventh consecutive time.

  • The Swedish central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, in line with market expectations.

  • The minutes of the Bank of Japan's July monetary policy meeting showed huge differences among the committee, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike process may continue to be hindered.

  • The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 21 was 218,000, and the previous value was revised from 219,000 to 222,000.

  • Goolsby: More rate cuts are likely to be needed over the next year, and interest rates will need to come down significantly. Unemployment is trending upward in direction, but remains low;

  • Bostic: The 50 basis point rate cut at this meeting does not "lock in" the pace of future rate cuts. The unemployment rate is not expected to rise significantly further;

  • Kashkari: The Fed is expected to take smaller rate cuts in the future, with two more rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points;


This week's key events & indicators

September 30

  • China September official/Caixin manufacturing PMI

  • 2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on the economic outlook (20:00)

October 01

  • Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the National Association for Business Economics (01:00)

  • The Bank of Japan released a summary of the opinions of the board members of the September monetary policy meeting (07:50)

  • US September ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00)

October 02

  • U.S. ADP employment in September (10,000 people) (20:15)

October 03

  • Number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 28 (10,000 people) (20:30)

October 04

  • U.S. unemployment rate in September (20:30)

  • U.S. September seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls (10,000 people) (20:30)