What is the probability of a sharp rise in BTC in October?
1. Seasonal factors: According to data from 2013 to 2023, BTC rose in October in 9 of the past 11 years, and 8 of them rose sharply. Seasonal factors tend to guide traders' emotions and drive BTC up in October.
2. FTX compensation fund repatriation: FTX plans to distribute more than $16 billion to creditors, which is expected to start in mid-October. After receiving the stablecoins for compensation, creditors are likely to invest in cryptocurrencies again.
3. Incremental funds brought by the global interest rate cut wave: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time on September 18 and will start large-scale water release this week. Central banks in the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, South Korea, and India will also accelerate interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, and increased liquidity will drive scarce assets such as BTC to appreciate rapidly.
4. The main uptrend starts in the sixth month after halving: Referring to the previous bull market, BTC often starts the main uptrend within 5-6 months after the halving every 4 years.
5. The shock wash is sufficient and the accumulation is completed: From March to September this year, BTC has experienced a 6-month wash in the range of 50,000-70,000 US dollars, and the current position is relatively light. According to the on-chain data, the whale's accumulation is close to completion, and the market is ready to go.
In summary, there is a high possibility that BTC will rise sharply in October this year! Although there may be some fluctuations in early October, the performance in the second half of the month is expected to be very impressive.
