Bitcoin has been consolidating for over 6 months, making lower highs and lower lows. Watch the Coinbase Premium to gauge buying pressure from the US market.

Strong buying pressure from the US pushes the Coinbase Premium above zero, while strong selling pressure pushes it below zero.

The trend has been forming with each lower high over the past 6 months. Every time BTC makes a lower high, the Coinbase Premium is below zero, indicating a decrease in buying pressure, overwhelmed by sellers.

For Bitcoin to break out of the 6-month accumulation phase and especially the multi-month downtrend line around $65.9k, we need to see the Coinbase Premium positive and remain positive.

The global macro backdrop is very optimistic with easy monetary policy, the Fed just cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the DXY is down, and the market is about to enter Q4, a period that is usually strong, especially after the halving.

With leverage, anything can happen in crypto. Bitcoin is expected to break out in the coming weeks or months if Coinbase Premium is positive.

Note that the US election is very uncertain, so the next big Bitcoin rally could come after the election, when the market stabilizes.

Written by DanBTC916