Bullish rebound or false breakthrough?
Written by: 0xFacai
After BTC broke through $70,000 on July 29, it started a downward trend. It reached $49,000 on August 5 and rebounded to $65,000. It continued to fall and formed a double bottom structure around $53,000 on September 6. The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates on September 19, and BTC rose accordingly. During the U.S. trading session on September 26, along with the strong rise of the U.S. stock index, BTC broke through the previous high of $65,000, destroying the structure of lower lows and higher highs.
Is this a real destruction of the falling structure or a false breakthrough of the previous high? How to understand it from a technical perspective? How to judge the future market based on the depth of the contract/spot order book and the liquidation map? Whether the macro environment can support the second half of the bull market? How will the market price interest rate cuts in the future? Trading bloggers have their own opinions.
Technical analysis flow
@Crypto_Scient believes that the trend of USDT.D (USDT Dominance) can be used to speculate the subsequent development of BTC: if USDT.D follows the red path, seizes liquidity in the daily liquidity gathering area, and then steps back on the rising trend line and rises, then BTC will show a short trend; if USDT.D follows the blue path, breaks through the trend and reverses the trend, then BTC will go out of the long trend and reach a historical high. Now we need to wait and observe USDT.D to give a definite signal before deciding on the subsequent trading strategy.
@AltcoinSherpa thinks bearish price action here, needs to get liquidity for BTC at $40k.
@trader_koala believes that this is something that needs to be observed and has prepared two trading strategies: if the support level pullback is effective, buy near the order block; if the support level fails, then buy in a deeper decline. If there is a deeper decline such as the daily K entity closing below approximately US$59,000, then the upward target is US$68,000 to US$70,000.
@CryptosLaowai believes that BTC has captured the liquidity of $65,000, and a sharp drop may occur here. The upward trend of BTC since $53,000 is in the form of an upward expanding wedge. The direction of the wedge will appear near the end, and it is likely to go down. The goal is to retest the support of $57,000 to $59,000, and then capture the liquidity of the upward trend line at about $68,000 and then fall.
@0xtaibai believes that BTC is stagnant at the resistance level of the previous high of the 4-hour level. The breakthrough has not been successful. It may consolidate, but there is no reversal structure of falling. If the subsequent rebound fails after the short structure breaks, short selling will be attempted. Mainly observe the potential shock range of the green area. At present, the overall upward trend has not been broken. It is expected to consolidate or a small pullback and then continue to rise.
@goukiller believes that in the weekly level game, Pivot Point’s R3 defense was successful and is still in an upward trend. The subsequent upward targets are R4 US$68,100 and R5 US$79,000.
Data analysis flow
@xiaomo924 believes that BTC has broken through the previous high, but the bullish momentum has not continued. If there is no continuous buying, it will need to consolidate and pull back in a short period of time. In the future, we need to pay attention to the retracement strength of the 4-hour EMA20 and 50 to see if there is support there.
The difference in contract order depth during the pull-up is greater than the difference in spot order depth, which means that the contract buying volume is greater than the spot. If there is no more spot buying volume in the future, there will be a risk of false breakthroughs.
The long-short ratio has reached a low level again. The whale is in a state of flat long. We need to pay attention to the callback after the release of short-term demand.
@Xbt886 From the order book, we found that there are a large number of sell orders between $66,000 and $66,700, and a large number of buy orders between $62,000 and $63,000. The overall trend is bullish and we can expect a pullback. However, it is also possible that the price is only attracted by pending orders and will not be actually traded. Don’t blindly short at $62,000 to $63,000. At present, those who chased high prices after obtaining short liquidity have been trapped. We should still observe conservatively in the future.
Macro analysis flow
@Phyrex_Ni believes that the bull return is not yet certain. BTC changes hands on the chain at a low rate, and the greatest possibility of an increase is still due to low liquidity. Yellen's speech revealed two key points on the macro environment: one is that the current U.S. economy is still doing well and there is a possibility of a soft landing; the second is that although the labor market is currently stable, it is still relatively fragile and requires the Federal Reserve to continue to cut interest rates. to keep the labor market from collapsing. In the BTC purchase data, users' emotions seem to be aroused, and they can clearly feel that their purchasing power is increasing. Even the purchase of ETFs with periodic quotations has increased significantly. A large number of investors have begun to sell cautiously, even for short-term gains. Gainers are beginning to expect higher prices.
Investors who held positions earlier are still indifferent. The chip concentration area between US$62,500 and US$64,000 is still increasing, and now has exceeded 1.324 million pieces, while the support between US$64,000 and US$69,000 remains in very good condition. The current price changes still depend on whether short-term holders are willing to release their chips.
