A look at next week's important futures data and events

1. At 9:30 on September 30, China's official manufacturing PMI and steel industry PMI for September. Previously, the National Bureau of Statistics previously announced that the manufacturing PMI for August fell by 0.3 percentage points to 49.1, tied with February 2024 as the lowest in the year, and was below the boom-bust line for four consecutive months. If the September data rebounds above the boom-bust line, it may indicate that domestic manufacturing activities are beginning to pick up. According to the data from China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the steel industry PMI in August 2024 was 40.4%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the steel industry continued to weaken.

2. September 30 (To be determined) ITS/AmSpec/SGS will announce Malaysia’s palm oil exports from September 1 to 30. According to AmSpec and ITS data, Malaysia’s palm oil exports from September 1 to 25 increased by 13.04-13.9% month-on-month. Whether the growth trend of Malaysia’s palm oil exports will continue.

3. USDA quarterly inventory report at 0:00 on October 1. According to Reuters estimates, as of the quarter ending September 1, 2024, US soybean stocks are expected to be 351 million bushels, corn stocks are expected to be 1.844 billion bushels, and wheat stocks are expected to be 1.973 billion bushels. Pay attention to whether the actual data will exceed market expectations.

4. At 1:00 am on October 1, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the National Association for Business Economics. Previously, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut on September 19, which was the first interest rate cut since March 2020 and hinted at the end of the tightening cycle. Powell's speech may provide more clues about the future path of monetary policy.

5. At 21:45 on October 1, the final value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for September was released. Previously, the final value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.1, the lowest in eight months. If the data in September continues to be sluggish, it may indicate that the US manufacturing industry is still under pressure.

6. October 1, to be determined, SPPOMA Malaysia palm oil production estimate from September 1 to 30. According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7% from September 1 to 25. This high-frequency data shows that Malaysia's palm oil producing areas are currently in a state of reduced production.

7. October 2, 20:15, U.S. ADP employment in September. Previously, the U.S. ADP employment in August increased by 99,000, the smallest increase since January 2021, indicating that the job market is slowing down. If the September data remains sluggish, it may increase market concerns about the state of the U.S. economy.

8. October 2, to be determined, the OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee will hold a meeting. Novak, Russia's top oil official and OPEC meeting representative, said that the organization does not intend to make any changes to the current production plan, and all OPEC+ oil producers are currently fully complying with the agreed production quotas. Pay attention to whether this meeting will adjust oil production.

9. At 16:00 on October 4, the global FAO (Food Price Index) for September was released. Previously, the global FAO Food Price Index for August averaged 120.7 points, a slight decrease from the revised index in July. Compared with historical levels, the food price index in August fell by 1.1% compared with the same period last year. Pay attention to how the data will change in September.

10. At 20:30 on October 4, the US September seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate were released. Previously, the US August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 142,000, which was lower than market expectations, but the largest increase since June this year. Pay attention to the changes in the September data, which may affect the Fed's monetary policy decisions.

11. October 4th, to be determined, Malaysia's MPOA palm oil production forecast for September 1-30. Previously, according to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia's palm oil production forecast for September 1-20 was reduced by 0.97%. Due to the current weather conditions, the market is concerned about the stagnation or even decline of Malaysia's palm oil production.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data