According to Jinshi, the Federal Reserve and Wall Street disagree on how fast interest rates should fall. Although the recent 50 basis point rate cut is considered just the beginning, Fed officials tend to lower interest rates in a slow and steady manner, while the market is betting that worsening economic conditions will force the Fed to accelerate the pace of rate cuts. In the September "dot plot", the Fed predicted that it would cut interest rates by another 100 basis points this year and another 100 basis points by the end of 2025, lowering the target rate range to 3.25% to 3.5%. Fed Governor Kugler said that if economic data continues the current trend, further rate cuts would be appropriate. The next FOMC meeting will be held on November 6-7. Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, pointed out that if the unemployment rate exceeds the Fed's forecast of 4.4% and non-farm employment growth remains at 100,000 or less per month, another 50 basis point rate cut in November will be on the agenda. Currently, the market is betting on another 50 basis point rate cut in November, and federal funds futures pricing shows that the probability is about 60%.
According to Odaily Planet Daily, the final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the second quarter of the United States was 2.8%, which was expected to be 2.8% and the previous value was 2.80%. The final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States was 3%, which was expected to be 3% and the previous value was 3.00%. The final annualized quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditures in the second quarter of the United States was 2.8%, which was expected to be 2.9% and the previous value was 2.9%. The final annualized quarterly rate of final sales in the second quarter of the United States was 1.9%, which was 2.2% before.
● Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 218,000 in the week ending September 21
According to BlockBeats, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 21 was 218,000, which was lower than the expected number of 225,000. The previous value was revised from 219,000 to 222,000. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 21 was 218,000, the lowest since the week of May 18.
● QCP Capital report: Chip market outlook optimistic, cryptocurrencies consolidate below key levels
According to Wu, the latest report from QCP Capital pointed out that the crypto market continues to consolidate under the key level of 64,000, with BTC fluctuating in the range of 62,000 to 64,000 and ETH trading at the low end of 2,600. Micron Technology Co., Ltd. Micron rose 16% before the opening due to an increase in Q4 revenue expectations. The market expects other chip manufacturers such as Nvidia to follow suit, which may become a catalyst for BTC to break through 64,000. Macro events worth watching today include US GDP data and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, and the market will pay close attention to any changes in its monetary policy. Meanwhile, Vice Presidential candidate Kamala Harris reiterated her support for cryptocurrency, promising to position the United States as a leading force in "artificial intelligence, quantum computing and blockchain."
According to CoinDesk, risk assets such as Bitcoin and some altcoins have risen since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points last week, which the market sees as a signal of monetary policy normalization. Some analysts expect Bitcoin to accelerate its rise after breaking through the $65,200 resistance level. However, at least three indicators indicate an economic slowdown. First, the U.S. Household Survey showed that the unemployment rate rose in 57.7% of states in August, indicating that the labor market is facing challenges and may lead to an economic slowdown. Second, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell to 100.2 in August, the lowest since October 2016, and has fallen for six consecutive months, triggering a recession signal. The ratio of leading and lagging indicators fell below 0.85, the lowest since the 1950s. Finally, the ratio of gold futures to Brent crude oil futures has risen by more than 35% this year, reaching nearly 40 points, the highest since 2020. Gold outperforms oil as a safe-haven asset, usually indicating an economic slowdown.
