On Thursday, the US released data showing that the number of initial jobless claims for the week was 218,000, lower than the expected value of 225,000, and the previous value was revised from 219,000 to 222,000; the final value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the US was 3%, in line with the expected value of 3%, and the same as the previous value of 3.00%. On Thursday night, the members of the Federal Reserve "spoke as a group" and the market continued to price in the remaining interest rate cuts this year. Further dovish signals will pave the way for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates. The S&P 500 index continued to hit an intraday record high of 5767 points, and spot gold stood at $2,680 per ounce, continuing to hit a record high.

Back to the topic:

On September 26, Musk announced that he would release a humanoid robot product on October 10, saying "this will go down in history." Meta (Facebook) launched a new virtual reality headset, entered the metaverse, and a series of enhancements to its artificial intelligence assistant Meta Al. Meta released a multimodal LLAMA 3.2 artificial intelligence model that can understand images and text at the same time. Meta's stock price hit a new high, up 2.2% to $575.77, with a market value of $1.44 trillion. The Hong Kong Securities and Exchange Commission released the "Financial Review of the Securities Industry", showing that the total net profit of the Hong Kong securities industry for the six months ending June 30, 2024 recorded further growth. The financial review report disclosed for the first time the virtual asset trading activities of the securities industry, which generated a total of 77 million yuan in revenue in the first half of 2024. According to a joint investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the transaction volume of non-exchange traded investment products handled by licensed institutions in 2023 reached 1.238 trillion yuan, a record high. Since September, 14 ancient BTC whale addresses have been resurrected, holding a total of 2,104 BTC. These whale addresses have generally been dormant for more than 10 years. The earliest one is the BTC mining address in February and March 2009, that is, only one month after the release of BTC, the address still holds 1,215 BTC. Keyrock research shows that 88% of the tokens airdropped during the issuance of the token this year have fallen in price, and most of them will plummet within 15 days. After three months, few tokens can produce positive results, and only a few tokens can go against the trend. Projects with too high FDV (fully diluted market value) usually find it difficult to maintain development momentum because the expected upside becomes limited. Lookonchain said that the destruction of ETH increased by 163% month-on-month in the past week.

The ETH price increases in January and October 2023 were preceded by spikes in daily ETH destruction. As the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points a week ago, the debate has intensified over whether the rate cut represents a normalization of overly tight monetary policy or a preparation for a U.S. economic downturn, CoinDesk reported. Risk assets including BTC and altcoins rebounded after the Fed’s decision, suggesting that the market views the rate cut as a normalizing move. Some analysts predict that BTC’s rise will accelerate once it breaks through the $65,200 resistance level. Coindesk reports that BTC has shown a significant accumulation trend recently. The net accumulation amount in September reached 88,000 BTC, which is about 7 times the monthly issuance, hitting the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2023. Currently, about 74% of the BTC circulating supply Classified as an illiquid asset, this supply contraction could set the stage for future price increases, potentially signaling continued strengthening of BTC market momentum in the fourth quarter of 2024. Data released by the United States on Thursday showed that 218,000 people filed for unemployment benefits that week, lower than the expected value of 225,000. The previous value was revised from 219,000 to 222,000; the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States in the second quarter was 3%. , in line with the expected value of 3%, unchanged from the previous value of 3.00%. The final quarterly rate of actual personal consumption expenditures in the second quarter was 2.8%, lower than the expected value of 2.9% and lower than the previous value of 2.9%. Among them, the number of initial jobless claims for the week was 218,000, a new low since the week of May 18. The economy grew at an annualized rate of 3% in the second quarter, in line with the second estimate and up from the 1.4% annualized rate in the first quarter. On Thursday evening, members of the Federal Reserve will "group to speak", including Powell, Collins, Coogler, Bowman, Williams, Barr and Cook, who will speak one after another.

Powell and Williams did not comment on the economy and monetary policy, and Bowman's remarks on monetary policy and economic prospects were almost the same as on September 24. Fed Governor Kugler said: He strongly supports the Fed's previous 50 basis point rate cut and does not want the labor market to weaken further. The Fed now needs to balance its focus so that it can avoid unnecessary pain and economic weakness. It is expected that the inflation data released on Friday will show that price pressures continue to ease, and the PCE price index may be as low as 2.2% in August. The market continues to price in the remaining rate cuts this year, and further dovish signals will pave the way for the Fed to further cut interest rates. The S&P 500 index continued to hit an intraday record high of 5,767 points, and spot gold stood at $2,680/ounce, continuing to hit a record high, up 0.85% on the day, and the gold price broke through the $65,000 mark. Economist Stephanie Roth said: If the US unemployment rate rises to 4.3% (currently 4.2%), the Fed may choose to cut interest rates more significantly. The basic expectation is that the Fed will cut to at least 3% (even before the end of 2025). Now they may accelerate this rate cut cycle, and may see 3% soon, and then may make several more rate cuts after that. Hedge fund legend David Tepper: The Fed must cut interest rates at least two or three more times to maintain its credibility. Goldman Sachs' chief financial officer said that a sharp rate cut is a clear sign of a new direction, and a soft landing seems to be a consensus. A 50 basis point rate cut is seen as an important turning point in monetary policy, bringing a new wave of optimism to the economic trajectory. Lookonchain data shows that BlackRock has increased its holdings by 4,460 BTC in the past two days, and its total holdings have reached 362,192 BTC, worth about US$22.9 billion.

10x Research analyzed that if the $65,000 level is broken, it will mean a reversal of the downward trend, and a new high may be set in the fourth quarter. The medium-term reversal indicator has been fully corrected at present, indicating that the downward trend may have ended. If BTC sets a new high, the high-beta value altcoins that have been hit hard may have a sharp reversal in their downward trend. The mentality of traders has changed significantly, and ETH is unfolding a similar technical pattern. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said: The Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, and the US banking system will continue to release more US dollars. The US dollar will weaken. This is just the beginning. The big impact will appear when banks issue more credit. Relax your mind and watch the fiat value of your portfolio soar. (Similarly, the US dollar will continue to depreciate and assets denominated in US dollars will appreciate as written a few days ago) The interest rate cut is a catfish that stirs the US currency market, stirring from one pool to another, and it is also a turning point in the currency market. The ups and downs prospects depend on whether the market has confidence in the prospects. When there is no confidence, it cannot afford to fall for a long time; when there is confidence, it will enter a bull market. The market's confidence comes from the Fed's continued interest rate cuts. Last week's 50 basis points was just the beginning. According to the Fed's historical response to "high volatility", once they start to cut interest rates, they usually continue to cut until the interest rate is close to 0% relative to inflation (achieving the so-called neutral interest rate). The US stock market/gold/big cake and cottage, etc., are high-risk and volatile, so pay attention to safety! #比特币盈利供应能否推动价格上涨？ #加密市场反弹 #PayPal将允许美国商家交易加密货币