Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily
Since August, Binance has frequently launched contracts for "old coins" that only have spot products, with an interval of only about two days. Every time a contract is launched, the spot price of the token will rise, but this "track" has been targeted by various news arbitrage robots, and the rise often occurs before ordinary users get the news.
In response to this, Odaily reviewed the market trends of 19 "old coins" since its launch on August 15, aiming to explore whether there are regularities in the short-term and medium-term trends, and whether there are strategies suitable for ordinary users to participate in.
Let’s look at the conclusion first
The first minute after the announcement of the “Old Coin” contract is usually the highest point within 24 hours;
Regardless of short-term or long-term, the profit-loss ratio of manual traders is not ideal;
After the contract goes online, long-term holding will bring higher returns than short-term speculation.
How to gamble in the ultra-short term?
In this section, Odaily counted the price data of 19 tokens every minute, and each token was counted for 60 minutes (i.e. 1 hour). The complete data is shown in the following table:
Data summary: The news of the online contract has a significant promoting effect on the coin price, with an average increase of 33% in 1 minute; the highest point in 1 hour increased by an average of 43%; and the closing price of 1 hour fell back to the 1-minute high point.
Is it suitable for ordinary users to buy manually after seeing the news? The answer is that it is no longer suitable. In the sixth column of the above table, we counted the minute in which the highest point occurred within an hour. Except for a few early tokens, it can be seen that the situation of "high point at launch" is becoming more and more prominent. Various news arbitrage robots end the battle within 1 minute.
How is the short-term profit and loss ratio? From a simple calculation, the eighth column "②-①" in the above table can be considered as the average increase in retail investors' purchases after seeing the news, while the last column is the expected value of loss, resulting in a profit and loss ratio of only 1.11 (10 ÷ 9).
In summary, it is not recommended for manual trading users to chase longs immediately. Currently, it is more inclined to short after a 1-minute surge (it is necessary to confirm whether there are contracts on other small exchanges).
Will the mid-term continue the upward trend or will the contract be opened short at the upper limit?
Furthermore, we counted the price data of 19 tokens every 15 minutes, and each token was counted for 96 15 minutes (i.e. 1 day). The complete data is shown in the following table:
Data summary: The highest increase in 1 hour is consistent with the previous section, with an average of 43%; the highest increase in 24 hours has further increased, with the average rising to 55%, but it is mainly contributed by early ALPACA, SYS, SYNC, etc.; the decline in high points has also widened, with an average decline of 15%.
Will the mid-term trend continue to rise? The answer is that there is no such effect at present. The early ALPACA tokens can continue to rise after a short-term FOMO, but the recent tokens have less and less obvious such effect. In this table, we also counted the hour in which the highest point occurred within 24 hours. The recent tokens also "hit the high point as soon as they were launched" and rose in the first minute of the first hour.
How is the mid-term profit and loss ratio? According to the algorithm in the previous section, the mid-term profit and loss ratio further dropped to 0.73 (11 ÷ 15), which is obviously not suitable for long positions.
So is it okay to go short? We have listed the performance of the contract after it went online in the last two columns of this table. It can be seen that if the short-term contract has weak profitability, but if it is enlarged to 24 hours, the decline will increase significantly, so it is more suitable for mid-term shorting.
