[Arthur Hayes self-assessed that the accuracy of market predictions is only 25%] Golden Finance reported that Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently revealed that his market prediction success rate is only 25%, and he was only correct twice out of 8 predictions in the past year. In his new article, he said that despite the poor performance of short-term predictions, he remained profitable by paying attention to macroeconomic trends. Hayes used a baseball analogy to describe the accuracy of his predictions in his blog, admitting that "a batting average of 25%" is very bad for ordinary people. His self-report covers key market forecasts from November 2023 to September 2024, including Treasury issuance, banking crises, cryptocurrency price trends, and central bank policies. Despite acknowledging the challenges of short-term predictions, Hayes reiterated his belief in the "volatility super cycle" theory, believing that this theory will support his long-term optimistic expectations for the future market.