Coinspeaker Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes Reviews His Past Predictions
Former CEO of BitMEX Arthur Hayes went down memory lane and wrote a review dubbed ‘Volatility supercycle’ about eight of his short-term market predictions. At the time, all eight were based on the macro market. Two of these predictions were correct, and the other six were wrong. The outcome of the forecast does not bother him since he claims he’s still making money.
Is the Bad Gurl “Yellen or Talkin”?
The American entrepreneur started in November 2023 when he wrote an essay entitled “Bad Gurl.” In this piece, Hayes predicted that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, whom he referred to as Bad Gurl, would issue more T-bills to drain funds from the US Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Program (RRP). A falling RRP would push liquidity into the system and cause risk assets to rise.
Hayes also voiced his confidence that the market would soften by March 2024, when the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) was set to expire.
Between November 2023 and March 2024, the RRP dipped by 59%, and as predicted, risk assets including Bitcoin BTC $64 761 24h volatility: 1.4% Market cap: $1.28 T Vol. 24h: $30.79 B saw a 77% surge in price. Similarly, the S&P 500 Index soared by 21% and gold by 5%. This was a win in Hayes’ prediction book.
In the same March, he came up with “Yellen or Talkin,” in which he postulated that the BTFP would not be renewed owing to its apparent inflationary aspects. Unfortunately, the expiry of the BTFP did not materially affect markets.
Of the eight forecasts, this marked the first wrong one, and Hayes also recorded some losses on his small position in Bitcoin.
More Predictions From Arthur Hayes Goes Wrong
A month later, the next essay was titled “Heatwave.” This was a prediction that tax season in the US would trigger a dip in crypto prices. Therefore, he decided to hold off on adding any additional crypto risk between April 15 and May 1. As predicted, RRP rose 33%, Bitcoin 9%, the S&P 500 Index fell 1%, and gold fell 3%. This prediction and its outcome marked Hayes’ second win.
From here, his other predictions, including the one on the BTC price, did not fall through. His most recent prediction came in the same month in an essay titled “Boom Times … Delayed”.
Hayes had hoped for a negative market reaction should the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. On September 18, the Fed settled for a 50-basis-point cut, and both US stocks and cryptocurrencies reacted positively. The market is still relatively up with the price of Bitcoin retesting the $64,500 atop a 3.2% surge in the past month.
In addition to all his forecasts, Hayes has predicted that the Quantitative Easing (QE) measures that different governments have chosen to adopt will benefit Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. He also revealed how market participants could benefit from this projected price boom for BTC.
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Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes Reviews His Past Predictions
