The content is quite long, so I put the conclusion first, so that in the next six months we can witness the historic moment of the Bitcoin spot ETF passing.

Referring to the time when the last round of Grayscale Trust was passed, I think the most likely scenario at present is

1. Approval of Bitcoin spot ETF application in January 2024 (the Federal Reserve will no longer raise interest rates or the market has no expectation of raising interest rates)

2. Bitcoin spot ETF will come into effect in April 2024 (before Bitcoin halving, it will help attract funds)

3. The Bitcoin bull market officially starts in July 2024 (after adjustments after halving and expectations of monetary easing are realized in the market)

4. In September 2024, the Federal Reserve will begin to enter a cycle of interest rate cuts and implement a monetary easing policy. (Once the expectation of interest rate cuts is released, the risk market will immediately realize it, 1 to 2 months in advance. We can refer to the prerequisite indicator of GDP>CPI)

Why do we judge that the bull market will officially start around July, not when the Bitcoin spot ETF takes effect? ​​Because we often experience a wave of adjustments 2-3 months after the halving, instead of starting immediately. Taking into account the current macro market's expectations for a rate cut cycle, the time is set in July.

Looking back at the starting point of the bull market in 2020, the process of Grayscale GBTC Trust passing

November 2019: Grayscale submits GBTC Trust Fund registration application to the SEC

January 2020: Grayscale GBTC Trust is registered and approved, becoming the first digital asset tool that meets the standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust officially takes effect in April 2020

In 2020, the Grayscale bull market alone brought about more than 10 billion US dollars of incremental funds to the cryptocurrency circle, and the incremental funds in the total market may be at the level of hundreds of billions.

The premium rate of GBTC in the secondary market was once as high as over 30%. Grayscale has not continued to increase its holdings of BTC since February 2021.

Grayscale previously held 654,885 BTC, with an estimated cost of $8.931 billion, and an average cost of only about $13,700

Next, let’s talk about the possible starting point and incremental funds for the next bull market.

In 2020, Grayscale used 10 billion US dollars to bring about 100 billion yuan of incremental funds to the market. In 2021, the total market value of the crypto market reached 3 trillion yuan, which was about 30 times higher than the 100 billion yuan in 2019.

If the same bull market continues, the inflow of funds will have to be over 100 billion. BlackRock's application for Bitcoin ETF approval is seen as a necessary condition for the next bull market. It will take about half a year to wait for the ETF to be actually approved (Grayscale applied in November 2019, took effect in April 2020, and Bitcoin halved in May 2020)

Then the incremental funds of ETF alone will exceed the current fund size of Grayscale ($25.5 billion), but this is not enough. Another necessary condition for a real bull market is that the market has sufficient monetary liquidity. After the Bitcoin spot ETF is passed, it is expected to bring hundreds of billions of dollars of liquidity to the crypto market, and the increase in total market value will be at least trillions of dollars. Then the total market value will also exceed the world's highest-valued company (currently Apple)

In summary, there are three necessary conditions for the start of the next bull market.

1. SEC approves spot BTC ETF

2. The next Bitcoin halving

3. Monetary easing and excess market liquidity

Finally, let’s make a summary of Bitcoin spot ETF

1. Bitcoin spot ETF application approved in January 2024 (Fed will no longer raise interest rates)

2. Effective from April 2024 (before Bitcoin halving)

3. The Bitcoin bull market officially starts in July 2024 (after adjustments after halving and expectations of monetary easing are realized in the market)

4. In September 2024, the Federal Reserve will begin to enter a cycle of interest rate cuts and implement a monetary easing policy. (Once the expectation of interest rate cuts is released, the risk market will immediately realize it, 1 to 2 months in advance. We can refer to the prerequisite indicator of GDP>CPI)
5. The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF will bring hundreds of billions of dollars of liquidity to the market

Let us witness the historic moment of Bitcoin spot ETF passing and the next round of magnificent bull market