1. In 99% of cases, it is right to choose old coins that have gone through at least one round of wash cycles (I put this first because it is the most contrary to common sense for most people. Everyone says that you should speculate on new narratives when speculating on coins, but I want to tell you clearly that this round is different. The successful case of ICP opening with high FDV and cashing out more than one billion US dollars in the last round has taught all project parties the "best cash-out plan". Previously, new coins opened at a low price, so they had to pull up the price to cash out at a high position. Look at all the new projects in this round. Which one opened with a low FDV? Market makers are the first One positive line directly completed the last round of one-year pull-up, and it is now possible to turn to the second stage of dumping the market to cash out. You ask me how to cash out without unlocking the coins? I tell you that there is something called a contract. Relying on the high altitude of the contract + borrowing coins to dump the market, the risk-return ratio is much better than the last round of bitter hoarding of coins to pull the market. I have emphasized to people around me many times that if you want to speculate on new narratives in this round, go to the primary market, not the secondary exchanges. If you want to find alpha in the secondary new coins, you may as well pick a yinmao plate at the primary market and fill it up with one shuttle.

2. Choose a coin with income, whether it is protocol income or service income. Being able to support the team with its own cash flow means that it does not need to dump the market from time to time to cash out. It is best if its income can be linked to the coin price, whether it is a buyback or dividend (this is why Aave is awesome)

3. Reject air coins, choose coins with business and natural growth of "business". The secondary institutions with subjective strategies that can survive this round actually have a consensus, and everyone is disgusted with air coins that only tell stories. So if you want to buy l2 or a public chain, first go to the chain to see if anyone has played it in the past six months, and whether there are more and more people playing it? Or it will become a dead chain directly after the airdrop (for example, look at starknet and zksync, is anyone playing it? And why is sui rising well? Just search the growth data on the chain online and you can see it); if you want to buy Defi, then go and see if its Defi business and income have grown, such as why banana gun can kill from the first level and go directly to Binance, why Aave and Ray have risen well? But GMX, DYDX, and AEVO have hit new lows all the way? These can actually be reflected in the business. When a coin has no business to generate income, and the coin price is still high at billions, then if you buy it, you will be the one who helps it pay the team's salary. If you want to speculate on air and concepts, why don't you go to the first level? Do you have to take over other people’s dreams at a high price in the secondary Binance?

4. Do not touch any Meme coin that is not from the first level, including all Memes on the TON chain on Binance. (I actually don’t understand why everyone chooses to take over these artificial Meme coins of Ton at the second level. Ton creates these Meme plates to attract people to create a false prosperity on the chain and make the price of Ton coins soar. These Meme coins on Binance are to transport users from the Ton ecosystem to the exchange, and then the launchpad can also airdrop benefits to BNB users. If you want to enjoy this wave of dividends, you can either buy Ton or go to Ton to make money, or buy BNB to enjoy the airdrop dividends of the exchange. You take over these Meme coins at the second level as the exit liquidity of the project party and the money-making people. It can only be said that you are doing charity)

5. If the VC chips of new coins are more than 5 times more expensive than those of retail investors, do not touch them at all, at least wait until the price drops to that level, especially for this round of VC. In fact, everyone has the mentality of "it's good to get back the money". So take a good look at the FDV before buying coins. For example, when Ethena was launched, I told my friends that if the FDV was around 2 billion, I would be willing to go in with a large position (it was already 7 times the VC in the previous round). As a result, Ethena opened at nearly 100 times the price, and I sold the airdrops I pledged immediately. So no matter how good the project is, you will be smashed to pieces at an outrageous price. Let me share a method I use. Suppose I want to buy layer2, I will first see how much more expensive the current price is than the previous private round? How does it compare with the current valuation of other layer 2s? (For example, if stark is more expensive than arb, it is obviously unreasonable, and Jup is so much more expensive than Ray, and the valuation will be fixed in the end). Then I will compare the valuation ceiling of this track in the previous round to see how much upside I have. For example, if you want to buy arb now, the valuation of polygon in the previous round is less than 20 billion, which is your ceiling. When arb's FDV was 10 billion, I wrote a post saying: If you buy Arb at this time, you are willing to only earn 1 times in the bull market and bear 80% of the risk of retracement, so why don't you buy BTC. But in fact, the valuation of altcoins is very generous compared with the previous round, because the target volume and capital diversion in this round are ten times that of the previous round, so my example is already the best case.

Listen less to other people's orders, use the product more often before buying a coin and ask yourself whether you will continue to use it, check the number of users and actual business, check the FDV and compare it with the valuation of the previous cycle to decide whether the current price is expensive, instead of judging by your feelings when the price chart shows a 80% drop. Control your hands and only buy things that you understand and believe in. In fact, if you can do all these points, you can outperform at least 90% of people.

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