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Daily Summary:

  • BTC ETF continues to see positive inflows

  • The Fed may cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in November

According to Farside Investor data, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $100 million yesterday, of which BlackRock IBIT had an inflow of $184 million and Fidelity FBTC had a net outflow of $33 million.

Yesterday, the US Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of US$43 million, of which BlackRock ETHA received US$9 million and Grayscale Mini ETH received US$26 million.

Ethereum's net supply increased by 6,556 in the past 7 days

According to Ultrasound.money data, the net supply of Ethereum increased by 6,556 in the past 7 days, of which the supply increased by about 18,349 ETH and 11,793 ETH were destroyed through the destruction mechanism. The total supply of Ethereum has reached 120,359,815 ETH, and the supply growth rate has now dropped to 0.284% per year.

Analysis: If labor data disappoints again, Powell may have another chance to convince colleagues to support a 50 basis point rate cut

When the Fed decides on Sept. 18, projections show an overwhelming majority favoring cutting its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point or more this year, implying at least one big cut. But a sizeable majority see just 75 basis points, suggesting support for three smaller cuts.

But in the end, all but one of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) supported Powell's 50 basis point rate cut. This is a key victory for Powell as he tries to prolong an economic expansion that many predicted was long over. The lone dissenter, Fed Governor Bowman, called for a more measured pace of rate cuts to avoid derailing progress on inflation.

Economists say another 50 basis point rate cut cannot be ruled out if the economy starts to decline, as Powell will prioritize keeping the economy close to full employment as long as inflation cools. If labor market data disappoints again, Powell may have a chance to tip his colleagues toward a 50 basis point cut again in the coming months. Some officials have said in recent days that they would likely support another 25 basis point cut, but have also left the door open to another larger rate cut.

Berachain launches RFB incentive program to provide liquidity and other support for early teams

Berachain announced the launch of the Request For Broposal (RFB) incentive program. RFB mainly provides liquidity support for Berachain's ecological projects and test network developers to help cold start projects.

It is reported that projects that have been deployed on the Berachain testnet can apply to participate in the RFB program before October 9, and can choose to participate in the Boyco project at the same time. The Boyco project supports project parties to access the Royco Protocol, so that project parties can directly obtain liquidity support from Berachain to focus on project development and community operations.

Market analysis: HMSTR will be launched, NEIROCTO rises and then falls

Market Hotspots

-Hamster Kombat, the leading click game on the Ton chain, will airdrop tokens today and be listed on Gate.io. Hamster Kombat has more than 100 million users. Users of this base size cannot receive a large amount of token airdrops per capita, and it is likely to be just a consolation prize. The current market value of HMSTR is estimated to be about 1 billion US dollars. The current market value of the Ton chain game DOGS, which previously issued tokens, has fallen from a high of 900 million US dollars to 450 million US dollars;

- The meme token Hippopotamus Moodeng on the Solana chain has risen nearly 1,000 times in two weeks, with a market value of more than $100 million. After cats, dogs and frogs, animal meme coins have shown a trend of spreading to other species of star animals. However, how much exposure this trend can bring to the token and whether the momentum of the token's rise will continue remains to be seen;

Market Trends

-BTC fell below $63,000 this morning, and a large amount of funds flowed out of the BTC ETF. The market is still suppressed by $65,000;

-ETH briefly broke through $2,700 and then fell back. It is now back below $2,600. After the ETH ETF inflow exceeded $6,000 yesterday, it still failed to change the downward trend of ETH in this round of market.

- Altcoins generally pulled back, NEIROCTO plummeted 30% after reaching a high, and stagflation tokens such as WLD and CELO rose;

Macroeconomics: The three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated, and U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly

The three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated, with the S&P 500 falling 0.19% to 5722.26 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.70% to 41914.75 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rising 0.04% to 18082.21 points. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 3.79%, and the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, was 3.53%.

In his recent statement, Fed Governor Kugler strongly supported the Fed's decision to cut interest rates last week, and hinted that if inflation progresses as expected, he would support further interest rate cuts in the future. The market responded positively to this. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market's expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points at the November meeting has risen to more than 60%. David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, expects that once the results of the U.S. presidential election are settled, U.S. stocks will continue to rise, and the S&P 500 index is expected to reach around 6,000 points in a year.

Summarize

The current digital currency market is greatly affected by the macroeconomic environment, especially the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The flow of funds in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs shows the differences among investors and the uncertainty of the market. The altcoin market is volatile, and investors need to be cautious. In terms of macroeconomics, the Fed's policy direction and the performance of US stocks will continue to affect the sentiment and trend of the entire market.

Investors are advised to pay close attention to the Federal Reserve’s policy trends and labor market data, while remaining sensitive to market hotspots in order to seize investment opportunities amid volatility.