Important meeting! Tonight at 9:20 pm, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give an opening speech at the 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference!
Earlier, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range of the federal funds rate from 5.25% to 5.5% to 4.75% to 5%, while the overall trend of the U.S. Treasury market was relatively stable. Market investors continue to believe that the world's largest economy will not fall into recession in the short term. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose instead of falling after the rate cut, and the yield curve steepened.
There are still many unresolved questions after this rate cut: To what level is the rate expected to be lowered, where is the neutral rate likely to be, and how fast will the rate cut be? Can Powell's speech provide some clues? Will it affect the subsequent trend of the US Treasury market?
In fact, this question is also very simple. We can see that every time there is a big drop, it must be accompanied by some big news or data. Recently, apart from the interest rate cut, there seems to be no point of much concern.
However, there are two very important data, and the final results of these two data will determine whether the final drop you expect can occur.
Key Stats:
One is tonight's initial unemployment claims.
Another one is the final value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in Q2!
Does a decline need a reason? A decline definitely needs a reason. Many times, we just don’t pay attention to the macro level. Every big pull-up and crash is actually supported by news.
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