Since September 19, Bitcoin has been fluctuating slightly between 62,000 and 64,000. Yesterday it even reached 64,818, but it has never reached the first pressure level of 65,000.
What is Bitcoin waiting for?
1. Both the long and short sides agree on the pressure level of 65,000
It's a bit like a PK between two people. After a period of fierce competition, both are exhausted. Breaking the current situation requires new external force intervention. Even if it is just a piece of news, the direction will change immediately, either up or down.
For example: Musk's loud order may quickly break through 65,000 and challenge the second pressure level of 70,000. For example: Trump goes back on his word, Harris is far ahead of Trump, and there are changes in CZ's release from prison on September 29. These may make Bitcoin return to around 60,000 again.
2. This Friday, September 27th, is the option delivery date
BTC options are also a very important derivative and an important indicator for us to assist in judging market trends. The principle of options is very simple, namely bullish and bearish, but it is mixed with many complex trading logics.
On the last Friday of every month, the largest Bitcoin options trading platform, Derbit, will have a large number of monthly options deliveries. Tomorrow is the last Friday of this month, and there are also a large number of options waiting to be delivered.
Let's take an objective look at what happens before and after each option delivery. First, derbit's option delivery will be at 4:00 p.m. Beijing time on September 27, when a total of $5.726 billion in positions will expire, and the put/call ratio will be 0.62.
The current price of BTC is around 63,200. It is basically impossible for the seller to bring the price back to the maximum pain point of 58,000 within 1 day.
We are looking at two key indicators
Currently, the BTC ahr999 index is 0.74. When the index is below 1.2, it is a good time for us to increase our positions. 1.2 to 5 is the time period for the bull market to take off. During the period below 5, just buy and do not sell, and hold your positions without moving.
The cost of 200-day fixed investment is 63780, which means that the cost of buying at this price is almost the same as the cost of 200-day fixed investment. Therefore, BTC below 64000 has a high cost-effectiveness.
at last:
The global crazy money printing and flooding mode has started again. At the current time period and price level of the market, there is not much time left for Bitcoin to waste. The second wave of interest rate cuts in November is just around the corner.
Therefore, in the future, if there is a pullback, especially when the daily RSI is below 30, just boldly add positions in batches. There is no need to hesitate. You will not be trapped for long. We are now at the tail end of the mid-term adjustment and the most difficult period has passed.
As for whether it will be long or short next, if you want to get the specific points, follow the main thread and discuss together.
