Today's homework is a bit interesting. First, an information account suddenly released a piece of out-of-context news that "SEC says cryptocurrency mining is securities", and then the price of BTC fell for a while, indicating that the current market sentiment is still very nervous. However, this headline party was quickly falsified, and the current price remains around US$63,000.

Judging from the data, the current stock at this position has exceeded 500,000 #BTC, which seems to be a lot. In fact, there have been some times when the stock has reached and exceeded 500,000 recently. As long as there is no clear negative information, there should not be much change, and this kind of headline party should not happen.

Last year, the largest single-price inventory we saw was nearly 1.3 million BTC. At that time, liquidity was relatively tight, so the accumulation of 500,000 was not a lot, but it should be noted that there are more than 1.3 million BTC accumulated in the $1,500 range of $62,500 to $64,000. If it continues to fluctuate at $63,000, who knows if the accumulation will continue to increase. However, judging from historical data, every time the accumulation exceeds 1.2 million, it will be a choice of market direction.

On the other hand, the long-term holdings of BTC have not continued to increase recently, but have begun to fluctuate. We have seen occasional distributions by long-term investors for several consecutive days. It is not yet certain whether this indicates the beginning of a phased upward trend. We need to wait a few more days to see if long-term holders are indeed starting to distribute.

USD 64,000 to USD 69,000 is still a very good support level, which has been supported for more than six months. The USD 56,500 to USD 61,500, which was previously considered to be a new support, was broken. This was also within our expectations. There is a high probability that this situation will occur in the short-term changes in chips. I tweeted an analysis of this historical situation this morning. Those who are interested can take a look.

https://x.com/Phyrex_Ni/status/1838891457710878723

The data has been updated, address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing

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