After a brief spike to $62,700 at 22:00 last night, Bitcoin rebounded again and reached a high of $64,698 at around 7:00 this morning (25), and it seems that it will soon challenge the $65,000 mark. But then the price of Bitcoin fell back slightly, and the current price fell back to around $64,000, up 0.38% in 24 hours.
How will the market trend develop in the future?
Let me first state the conclusion. I believe that there is still a risk of one last decline in this round. If it declines, it will only happen once (buy decisively when it declines). From now until the middle of next year, it will be a slow bull market!
As for the future trend of Bitcoin, the current rebound cannot confirm the end of the long-term downward trend. We need to continue to observe whether Bitcoin can break through the relative high of $65,000 on August 25. Bitcoin needs to break through the August high of $65,000 to confirm the end of the long-term downward trend.
There are still many good news in the market these two days. The news about another 50 basis point interest rate cut in November has been called for by the market again. The probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut is close to 51.5%. From the logic of this month's interest rate cut, if the inflation data can be kept within a reasonable range, the unemployment rate rises slightly, and the principle of high-intensity defensive interest rate cuts is adhered to, the market may really fall beyond expectations. If this is true, after a short period of economic panic, the liquidity of the market will be injected in advance, and the early arrival of the big bull market will no longer be hindered.
The weekly pressure of Bitcoin's current rise is 65,000. It rushed to around 64,700 yesterday and began to fall back quickly, which shows that the pressure here is still very large. After all, this position is the high point of the previous market crash. Currently, Bitcoin is still moving in conjunction with the U.S. stock market. The U.S. stock market did not rise much last night, so Bitcoin naturally could not go up. The recent rise of the market was basically pulled up during the day, so there may be more funds entering the market in the Asian session. In the past, the market usually rose in the middle of the night, and in the middle of the night and early in the morning, there are usually more foreign funds entering the market.
In terms of operation: for those who have bottomed out in the 56000-53000 range before, if it is a short-term trade, I personally suggest that you don’t pay attention to the short-term market anymore, and pocket the short-term profits, and then wait for the opportunity to enter the market again. You can also make a few thousand points by selling here, which is not bad. If it is a long-term trade, the cost-effectiveness of bottoming out at this position is still very high. Don’t be affected by the short-term market, just hold firmly. If you have bottomed out in the 2200-2300 range of Ethereum before, you can continue to hold it now, and sell it when it reaches around 2800 in the short term. Don’t pay attention to the short-term market for long-term holdings.
The current market panic has finally broken free and returned to a normal neutral level. The market continues to rebound. In addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, which sectors have performed well?
On
Sui has performed extremely strongly recently. After falling below $0.5 in early August this year, it quickly rebounded to around $1. After fluctuating for several weeks, it soared again from around $0.8 to a high of nearly $1.8, an increase of more than 100%.
Since the beginning of this month, Sui has received a lot of good news. Mysten Labs launched a game console pre-order in early September, priced at $600 each, which was quickly sold out, bringing it a lot of popularity. A week later, Grayscale Trust announced that it had opened up to qualified investors seeking to invest in SUI, opening up a large capital entry. On the same day, Binance launched a perpetual contract based on SUI currency, with a maximum leverage of 20 times, which continued the rise in its currency price.
On September 17, Sui Lianchuang announced that USDC would be extended to the Sui network. The next day, the Sui network TVL exceeded 1 billion US dollars, setting a new record high.
Its ecological sectors also saw significant growth subsequently, including SUIP, CETUS, NAVX, etc. Even the Meme coin BLUB rose all the way during this period, and its market value has risen to 45 million US dollars.
AI Section
AI-related projects such as ARKM, AR, NEAR, LPT, and FET are on the rise and have broad prospects.
FET: Fetch.ai's original token FET is gradually gaining momentum with the help of Bitcoin's rebound. As the market recovers, the hype potential of FET still exists, especially before the launch of the second phase of the three-coin integration plan, investors should keep an eye on it.
CZ Concept
On September 17, He Yi published a long article specifically responding to rumors that the cryptocurrency community was anxious about listing coins, which shows that the market was extremely dull. However, a week later, when the market picked up again, CZ's release from prison became a major event that attracted much attention in the cryptocurrency community. According to data from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Prisons, CZ will be officially released from prison on September 29, and the news event even rushed to the hot search list recently.
The community is discussing CZ's actions after his release from prison and the tokens of Binance's new projects. Binance's territory and its new projects have seen a wave of growth
Leading projects in the blockchain gaming sector: YGG, GALA, IMX
As one of the important application areas of blockchain technology, projects such as YGG, GALA, and IMX are gradually becoming leaders in the field of blockchain games with their unique game mechanisms and strong community support, and have great potential in the future.
Memecoin Carnival:
BONK、WIF、PEPE、FLOKI、BOME & FOUR、Binancedog
These meme coins have attracted a lot of attention with their unique cultural background and social attributes. Although they are volatile, they also have huge potential for growth. For investors seeking excitement and short-term gains, they are a choice not to be missed. FOUR and Binancedog stand out in the meme coin market with their unique creativity and strong community support.
Outlook
At present, the much-questioned fields such as games and social networking are generally confused and have not seen much improvement. New memes have not set off a large hype atmosphere. A considerable amount of funds have been pouring into the aforementioned fields in the article.
At the macro level, after the Fed cut interest rates this month, the market generally predicts that interest rates will continue to be cut in November and December, and another 70 basis points of interest rate cuts are expected this year. The published dot plot suggests that interest rates will be cut by 50 basis points this year. The Fed's continuous interest rate cuts will inject liquidity into the crypto market and provide a sustained positive for the rise of the crypto market. In addition, after the results of the US presidential election in early November are announced, some hesitant funds will also choose to be injected into the crypto market.
In the crypto market, October is historically an extremely bullish month. Markets tend to pick up at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, but generally perform poorly in the summer.
As for Bitcoin spot ETF, the total net inflow has reached 17.7 billion US dollars since its launch. In addition, since September 9, there have been only two days with small outflows, and the rest have been positive inflows, with the largest one-day net inflow reaching 263 million US dollars. The data performance is relatively optimistic, and the confidence of over-the-counter buying funds is firm.
TOKEN 2049 in 2023 is the dawn of the bull market before the end of 2023. It is worth waiting to see whether the just-passed TOEKEN 2049 will once again become the bottom of a new round of bull market cycle.
