As we dive into the world of $HMSTR, let's break down the token’s potential, analyze its market entry, and predict where we might land in terms of pricing after distribution. 🚀
Token Breakdown
Total Supply: 100 billion tokens (100%)
60% to airdrop Season 1 (88.75% at TGE, 11.25% 10 months later)
15% to airdrop Season 2
25% to liquidity, partnerships, grants, and incentives
The real concern here is the lack of a clear utility for $HMSTR. The team claims it will go "beyond the game," but with no specifics in place, holders are left wondering: Why should I keep my tokens?
Key Insights & Concerns
Positive factors:
Financial backing and the expertise of Gotbit's market-making team support a strong launch.
The project has enough funds to sustain its growth without needing to sell off tokens.
Negative factors:
Some influencers claim they're missing out on promised token distributions.
A large user base could trigger sell pressure at TGE, especially with players fatigued from the game.
Price Differences: Bybit vs OKX
Before launch, Bybit listed $HMSTR at $0.10 per token, while OKX offered it at $0.01. The difference arises because Bybit priced based on a 10 billion token supply, while OKX used the full 100 billion.
However, this is where we need to apply some real-world math to predict post-launch pricing.
Scenarios: Pricing Predictions
Let’s take into account different market capitalizations:
Ideal scenario: Market cap of $2 billion = token price of $0.02.
Moderate scenario: Market cap of $1 billion = token price of $0.01.
Bearish scenario: Market cap of $0.5 billion = token price of $0.005.
Given the historical performance of tokens like $DOGS, $NOT, and $CATI, which saw full capitalizations between $0.8 billion and $1 billion at listing, it’s realistic to expect $HMSTR will follow a similar path. A price of $0.01 per token seems likely at the start.
A Wild Card: Market Maker Strategy 🎯
We cannot ignore the role of Gotbit, the market maker. They have a track record of pushing projects to outperform. It’s entirely possible that they could engineer a higher initial market cap, pushing $HMSTR towards $2 billion or more, resulting in a price of $0.02 per token or even higher. This could fuel excitement in the short term, driving up early demand.
Final Thought: Will You Hold or Sell?
With no clear token utility beyond speculation, most users are likely to sell their airdrop at TGE. The real test for Hamster will come in Season 2. Will the rewards be enough to keep players engaged? Or will the selling pressure cause the price to tumble?
Personally, I’m sitting on 2,400 $HMSTR tokens, and I'm leaning towards selling at TGE if the price hits around $0.02, but keeping a small stash for potential future developments.
What’s your play? Will you hold or sell at launch?
Follow me for more insights and let's see where this hamster race takes us! 🐹🔥
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