Bitcoin (BTC) is gearing up for its second-largest monthly options expiration in 2024, with a total value of $8.1 billion. The question is: will this be enough to fuel a strong rally to $70,000, or will bearish forces prevail?
Risk assets, including Bitcoin, are in favor in the current macroeconomic environment, and the September 27 options expiration will be a key event. Neutral to bullish options traders could take advantage of the opportunity if BTC holds above $63,000. However, bears have enough momentum to push BTC below $60,000. Therefore, it is important to analyze the position of the options market and the potential impact of the monthly expiration.
On September 24, Chinese stocks surged after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced plans to cut borrowing costs and inject liquidity into the economy, including mortgage-repayment relief programs. In addition, the PBOC pledged to spend $113.8 billion to support the stock market, including share buybacks. “There is still room for further easing in the coming months,” said Lynn Song, chief China economist at ING, according to Yahoo Finance.
China has mirrored the more dovish U.S. monetary policy, which has benefited risk assets like Bitcoin. By stimulating their economies and cutting interest rates, central banks are reducing the appeal of fixed investments and fueling inflationary pressures. In such an environment, scarce assets like Bitcoin tend to outperform, especially with the S&P 500 less than 1% from its recent record high and home prices in the 20 largest U.S. metropolitan areas up 5.9% over the past 12 months, according to the Case-Shiller Index.
Given these favorable macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin bulls have reason to believe that $63,000 will hold through the September 27 options expiration, and that a rally to $65,000 is possible. However, to assess the likelihood of such a rally, it is important to look at how Bitcoin options traders are positioning themselves ahead of the expiration.
Bitcoin options open interest summary September 27, USD | Source: Laevitas.ch
From a broader perspective, the $4.9 billion worth of Bitcoin calls is 53% larger than the $3.2 billion worth of puts. While this is not uncommon—cryptocurrency traders tend to be bullish—the extreme optimism expressed by bets on Bitcoin reaching $90,000 or higher seems overly ambitious, especially with less than three days to go before these options expire.
In fact, 55% of the calls were placed at a strike price of $70,000 or higher, leaving $2.22 billion in notional value available for September expiration. Similarly, 69% of the puts were placed at $56,000 or lower, leaving them likely to expire worthless, reducing the remaining notional value to about $1 billion.
Call options are well positioned, favoring the bulls
Here are the four most likely scenarios based on current price trends. The availability of call and put options for the September 27 expiration date varies depending on the settlement price of Bitcoin at that time.
This rough estimate assumes that calls are used primarily for bullish positions, while puts are used for neutral to bearish strategies. However, it should be noted that this is a simplification and does not account for more complex investment strategies.
Between $57,000 and $58,000: Net result in favor of the put option of $250 million.
Between $58,000 and $60,000: The expected net result is balanced between the call and put options.
Between $60,000 and $62,000: Net result in favor of the call option of $550 million.
Between $62,000 and $64,000: Net result in favor of $1 billion call option.
Bears are under significant pressure to push Bitcoin below $60,000 ahead of the September monthly expiry to avoid a $550 million call option scenario. However, with supportive macroeconomic conditions – including rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and stimulus from China’s central bank – the odds appear to be in favor of Bitcoin optimists.
Source: https://tapchibitcoin.io/81-ty-usd-quyen-chon-bitcoin-dao-han-trong-thang-nay-phe-bo-hay-phe-gau-chiem-uu-the.html
