The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50bp and 25bp in November is "tied", and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 25.6%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 50.0%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 24.4%. Due to the Fed's rate cuts, the weakening of the US dollar and the decline in bond yields, the US dollar index fell by about 0.4% last week, the S&P 500 hit its 39th record high since 2024, and the Nasdaq 100 recorded its best two-week gain since November.
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Australian regulators are preparing new legislation to require cryptocurrency exchanges to obtain financial services licenses. Regulators believe that the Corporations Act covers most major crypto assets such as BTC. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) is preparing to update Information Sheet 225 of the Corporations Act to more clearly explain how specific crypto tokens and certain products should be handled from a regulatory perspective. ASIC is concerned about potential consumer damage and market misconduct. The licensing system will help reduce risks, build consumer trust and protect market integrity. Bloomberg reported that Harris said: It will encourage innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital assets while protecting consumers and investors. It is reported that this is the first time Harris has commented on cryptocurrencies. Coinbase Policy Director Faryar Shirzad said that Harris's crypto-friendly statement is important and constructive, showing the public that she believes that digital asset innovation is very important and is as important as artificial intelligence. They are thoughtful and open to cryptocurrencies. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and former Apple Design Director Jony Ive jointly designed AI hardware for individuals. Australia's Monochrome spot BTC ETF held 142 BTC as of September 19. According to data from The Block, the number of ETH destroyed soared from 80.27 ETH on September 1 to 1,360 ETH on September 21, an increase of 1,600% in three weeks. According to DefiLlama data, the total market value of stablecoins reached US$172.283 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.54%.
According to HODL15 Capital data, a whale address has increased its holdings of BTC worth $1.4 billion so far this month, and these BTC come from multiple platforms. The whale's BTC holdings increased from 2625.22 BTC on September 6 to 23732.82 BTC on September 20. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that BTC performed well over the weekend and the meme time has come. Last week, Arthur Hayes said that the market will collapse before entering a bull market after the interest rate cut, and ETH will perform strongly in the interest rate cut cycle. 10x Research analysis said that BTC is expected to hit a record high in the fourth quarter of this year. As it approaches the critical window from October to March of the following year, the possibility of a breakthrough is increasing, the market structure has improved, the minting of stablecoins has increased, and futures leverage is also rising. Although there is still resistance, major catalysts may still bring surprises to investors. Analyst Titan said based on the BTC Relative Strength Index (RSI) weekly chart, market momentum is building that will push prices to new all-time highs, with $85,000 being the medium-term target. The weekly RSI breakout signal suggests that BTC will rise before the end of the year, and if September ends with an increase, the upward trend should continue throughout the fourth quarter. Peter Brandt, a chart analyst and founder of FactorTrading who predicted the BTC crash in 2018, said the BTC-to-gold ratio could rise by more than 400% by 2025. Brandt cited classic technical chart analysis to support his expectations, with the price increase being equal to the maximum distance between the neckline and the deepest point of the head. For the BTC-to-gold ratio, the price of 1BTC could be equal to 123 ounces of gold as early as 2025, up more than 400% from 24 ounces on September 22, 2024.
BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of $397 million last week, while Grayscale ETF GBTC had a net outflow of $28.89 million in a single week. ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of $26.26 million last week, while Grayscale ETH ETF ETHE had a net outflow of $46.38 million. On September 23, BTC briefly broke through $64,000. Larry Fink, founder of BlackRock Group, said in an interview with CNBC: I believe BTC is a financial instrument and that BTC has a place in the investment portfolio. Last week, Waller, a potential successor to the Fed's director and current Fed governor, said: "If the job market deteriorates, we may consider cutting interest rates by another 50 basis points." The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50BP and 25BP in November is "tied", and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 25.6%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 50.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point cut is 24.4%. Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, said that the U.S. stock and credit markets are digesting the expectation of a 250 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and an 18% earnings growth for S&P 500 index components by the end of 2025. In the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's sharp rate cut, gold futures hit a new record of $2,651 per ounce last Friday, which should boost investor demand for precious metals. Citigroup reiterated its bullish stance on gold, and a sharp rebound in gold ETF inflows should push gold prices higher in the medium term. Due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, a weaker dollar and lower bond yields, the U.S. dollar index fell about 0.4% last week, the S&P 500 hit its 39th all-time high since 2024, and the Nasdaq 100 posted its best two-week gain since November.
Small-cap stocks, which are most sensitive to economic fluctuations, rose for seven consecutive trading days as of last Thursday, the longest streak since March 2021; ETFs focused on cheap stocks attracted $13 billion this month, the largest inflow in more than three years. Such value funds are dominated by cyclical stocks such as banks. According to Bank of America data, since 1970, as long as the economy avoids a recession, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 21% in the year after the first rate cut in an easing cycle. Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, kicking off the easing cycle. At the end of the third quarter, we are about to enter the fourth quarter, and historical performance shows that the fourth quarter may see stronger than usual performance, especially after the Federal Reserve shifts to easing mode. Say goodbye to the weak summer and usher in a strong fourth quarter. As the Federal Reserve has joined other central banks in starting a rate cut cycle, the bull market will gradually get better. After the rate cut, the US dollar weakened, and the outflow of US dollars will eventually flow into the place where the bubble grows. This is simple bull-bear logic. As Bitcoin strengthens, Ethereum, which many people complained about, has finally improved, followed by the altcoins. After the Fed cuts interest rates, the flow of the US dollar will go from high to low. (Bull market still needs to pay attention to safety/high volatility/many bubbles) #本周美国将公布PCE、GDP数据 #新币挖矿已上线HMSTR #加密市场反弹
