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Weekly Review
This week, from September 16 to September 23, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $64,133 and the lowest was close to $57,493, with a fluctuation range of about 11.55%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 62869, which will provide certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 1.71 million pieces;
64000-68000: about 900,000 pieces;
The probability of not falling below 53,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
Important news
Economic News
Dudley, former head of the New York Fed, said the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 and 25 basis points in November and December, respectively.
Wall Street is betting the Federal Reserve will be able to pull off a soft landing, spurring a rebound in riskier parts of the market.
UBS's base case is that the S&P 500 will reach 5,900 by the end of the year and rise to 6,200 in June 2025.
Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank predict that the currency market will continue to recover due to favorable macroeconomic conditions.
BlackRock believes that the key significance of the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points is that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates over the next two years.
The dot plot of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting: the interest rate cut cycle started with a range of 50 basis points. The dot plot shows that the interest rate will be cut by another 50 basis points this year and another 100 basis points next year.
Federal Reserve meeting statement: Slightly lower this year's GDP forecast, comprehensively raise unemployment rate forecasts from 2024 to 2026, and lower PCE and core PCE inflation expectations for the past two years.
The Fed's dot plot shows that the median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2022 is 4.4%, down from 5.1% previously. The median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025 has dropped to 3.5%, down from 4.1% previously.
Encrypted ecological news
Glassnode stated that the BTC market is currently experiencing a period of stagnation, with both supply and demand sides showing signs of inactivity. Market participants generally engage in HODL behavior, resulting in a rapid increase in "storage latency". As the number of tokens available for active trading continues to decrease, the supply side is generally tightening.
BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, released a white paper detailing BTC's unique position as a major asset class. BTC is not only a "unique diversification tool", but also difficult to evaluate using traditional asset analysis methods. BTC is "almost unaffected by the macro factors that affect most traditional asset classes."
Adam, a researcher at Greekslive, said that the latest rate cut by the Federal Reserve of 50 basis points exceeded the expectations of many macro analysts. However, it basically met the expectations of the futures market. After the rate cut, the cryptocurrency market rose across the board. There will be another interest rate meeting on November 8 and December 19. The market has cut interest rates by 100 basis points in total. The next meeting will be superimposed on the general election, and the volatility will be further amplified.
U.S. presidential candidate Harris broke her silence and publicly pledged support for cryptocurrency investment.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Short-term holder costs
Long-term holder structure
Large net positions on exchanges
Total spot selling pressure
(The figure below shows the cost of short-term holders)
The cost for short-term holders has come to around 62,200, which is slightly lower than the cost of previous short-term repairs.
According to the psychological rivet effect, 62,200 will be a support point for a possible pullback later.
This position requires some close attention.
(The figure below shows the structure of long-term holders)
For now, long-term participants are still holding on to their chips.
When long-term participants do not sell their chips and there is not too much selling pressure in the market, the market pressure generally tends to ease and the market structure is stable. If it is in a bull market, it is a relatively good buying stage.
(The following figure shows large net positions on exchanges)
Judging from the large inflows and outflows of exchanges, the selling pressure has improved a lot compared to the previous one.
Previously, a large amount of inflows were concentrated, and now outflows are more concentrated. However, the frequency of outflows is not very high. However, the market has entered a stage of slow buying, and the market's willingness has begun to shift.
(Figure below: Total spot selling pressure)
Judging from the total spot selling pressure, the spot selling pressure is not high at present. It has not risen with the increase in prices, nor has it dropped significantly. It is just flat.
Mid-term exploration
BTC supply distribution
Liquidity Supply
Global purchasing power
Whale comprehensive score
USDC comprehensive score
(Figure below shows BTC supply distribution)
Blue line: Accumulated illiquid supply
Red line: Short-term participant supply + exchange balance
Currently, two layers of information are available:
(1) The blue line indicates that the market is in an accumulation state, and participants in various parts have more or less entered an illiquid state. This also shows that in the cold market, more people choose to hold on or accumulate slowly.
(2) It is currently impossible to determine whether more hot money will flow into the market after the interest rate cut, but the red line clearly shows that sentiment has eased. Liquidity is no longer decreasing, but rather has slight fluctuations.
It may be more appropriate to judge the current market as neutral, as the market is also more affected by external factors. It is possible that under the influence of the US stock cycle, the market will have a longer-term development.
(Figure below shows liquidity supply)
There are some signs of repair in the liquidity.
There is resonance in the model corresponding to signs of liquidity repair in BTC supply distribution.
Perhaps current liquidity is not the main reason for stagnation.
(Figure below: Global purchasing power)
Global purchasing power showed slight signs of recovery.
(The following figure shows the comprehensive score of the whale)
After the price rises, there is a slight reduction in holdings by whales, which may make the current market price unstable.
(USDC comprehensive score in the figure below)
Currently, the USDC is also slightly stagnant, and the market may experience a short-term adjustment.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor enters the red zone and the risk increases.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
After the market squeeze last week, the risk factor is still in the red zone. Judging from the risk factor alone, BTC may consolidate at the current price, which is also near the cost line of short-term holders, before continuing to the next market trend.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Option trading volume decreased slightly, and the proportion of put options increased slightly.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives volumes returned to the bottom area after the market squeeze.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility has not changed much.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
While the market was being squeezed, the positive market sentiment (blue line) reached a short-term extreme, and panic sentiment (orange line) did not lead to selling due to the unwinding of positions.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at a median level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has moderate outflow, ETH has moderate inflow accumulation.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
Medium amount of BTC outflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH moderate inflows are accumulating.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, while stablecoin purchasing power has been lost slightly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
America's purchasing power has stopped losing power and has now recovered slightly.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC exchange net positions lost a small amount.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 60,000; there is a willingness to sell at 65,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000~70,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 60,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000 and 70,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
The rate cut cycle started as expected, and the market quickly responded. It entered the late mid-term of the market rhythm.
This interest rate cut cycle is expected to last approximately 15 to 18 months. The interest rate cut cycle usually responds to the depreciation of the US dollar and the appreciation of risky assets denominated in US dollars.
Many people in the market believe that a rate cut will be accompanied by a sharp drop, but for the crypto market, the large amount of liquidation in the previous six months, the liquidation of previous bankruptcies, the liquidation of debts, and the selling of various governments have completely digested most of the negatives. The probability of further accelerated decline is small. The market generally digests expectations in advance.
And according to the latest news, encryption has now gained the support of both the Republican and Democratic representatives on the policy on the eve of the election.
Under normal circumstances, it is likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and risk assets will enter a bull market, unless a substantial recession occurs.
On-chain long-term insights:
From the perspective of short-term holder cost, 62,200 is a price worthy of attention, and may also be a support level for subsequent pullbacks;
The holding structure of long-term holders is still stable and has increased slightly;
Large transactions on exchanges show that the market has shifted from a small amount of large selling pressure to a large amount of small buying;
The total spot selling pressure is not large, and the market selling pressure is close to slowing down and stagnating.
Market setting:
The market is gradually going through another process of transitioning from a weak wall to a strong wall.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The market is still in an accumulation state;
There are signs of repair in liquidity;
Global purchasing power shows signs of recovery;
Whale, the USDC comprehensive score dropped slightly.
Market setting:
Accumulation, adjustment
The market may be going through a correction, with moves slowing down and maintaining an accumulation state.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is near the red area and the risk is increasing.
The number of newly added active addresses is relatively medium.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange shows a moderate outflow of BTC and a moderate inflow of ETH.
Global purchasing power is recovering slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins is being lost slightly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 60,000 and a willingness to sell at 65,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 53,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
Market setting:
Overall, the market's positive sentiment has rebounded slightly. It is expected that the short-term market will consolidate around the short-term holder cost line (62K) before entering the next stage of the market.
Risk Warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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