As much as I would like to say that this is ☝️ really true, in practice everything is not quite so simple, let's figure it out:
⬇️
As you know, listing announcements on major exchanges, especially #Binance! , are quite positive news. But what happens to the tokens after these listings? Is it worth buying tokens after listings?
The Blockworks and Coingecko teams attempted to answer these questions in their article, from which I decided to highlight the most significant points.
So, the main take of the article is that listing announcements on major exchanges (Binance, Coinbase) really do have a positive effect on the price. Here is a small sample of 42 tokens:
⏺️ 80% of tokens have grown by at least 10% since the announcements.
⏺️ About 50% of tokens have grown by 50% or more.
⏺️ A third of tokens made two x's or more.
Quite a good result, but after the listings the situation is exactly the opposite: only 12 of 42 tokens continued to grow, while the rest went into the negative. At the same time, half of them fell by 45% or more.
At the same time, the article makes allowance for the fact that listings could have taken place during periods of high volatility and/or during a bad news background.
Now let's move on to the topic of drops, namely, let's discuss how the price of tokens changed after the distributions and what was more profitable: to merge or hold.
A useful table from CryptoRank will help us with this, which contains 15 large drops that occurred in different periods. So, more than half of all drops were profitable to drain during the first month, or even a day after the start of trading.
The exceptions were Bonk, Optimism (small difference), Aptos, Uniswap and Celestia, which all traded within a period of 3 months to over a year.
This statistic once again confirms the fact that if you got a drop and you have a question about money, then the best option in most cases will be to hit the glass.
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
if you want deeper thoughts 👇
In my opinion, it is extremely important to consider two factors in whether to sell a drop on a listing or not:
1. Do you have enough liquidity for a comfortable life next year? If the answer is "No", then of course you need to sell drops. If the answer is "Yes, I have enough liquidity", then we move on to the second factor.
2. It is important to understand what market the project is coming out on and at what valuations. If the drop comes out in a bullish stage and it is priced well (Example: STRK at 20 billion, W at 16 billion), then it is better not to be greedy and no matter how much liquid you have, it is better to stack everything, I say as a person who was waiting for 2x on his remaining 30% of the STRK drop and they gave -80% of the highs, it is still very unpleasant.
If the project comes out on a downtrend and is valued low, like the same ZRO, ZK, BLAST, which are valued near their last rounds of financing. Then there is a good prospect of holding such drops, again, if you have enough liquidity.
observing many large funds and their founders, it is no longer a secret that good projects have strategies for token pumps and at first they skim the cream off the listings, and then after the dump there is always a pump, although this can take a long time.
Another reason why most people lose money is the inability to wait and sit out such apathetic moments as now. People want quick money because of this their buying horizon is very short. If you want to really make money, then be patient and prepare for months, if not years of holding.
There is another case: Arbitrum - it came out on a downtrend, with bitcoin at 20k and was still valued at 10-15 billion, you need to look at the market soberly and analyze the possible upside. Still, I think the right decision was to dump the token at the listing at those values.
Crypto is a very interesting area, where the people who earn the most are those who know how to analyze projects, the market, and maintain a balance between their greed and fear of losses.
