Today we are going to talk about FIL. Many people should have heard of FIL, the leader of the last round of decentralized storage. Since the bull reached the ceiling, it has been falling all the way. The bottom-fishing army has been on the way. Many people think it is the bottom, but there is a bottom in the bottom. Many people are trapped, and the release is far away. Now the currency price is still at the bottom. Another project of the same period, AR, should not be known by many people. It is also a decentralized storage. There has always been a competitive relationship between the two. Today, let’s discuss the relationship between the two parties and the current and future trends:
Filecoin's current market environment is different from that in 2021. At that time, its circulating disk was only tens of millions, and service providers enthusiastically participated in the network, resulting in a huge demand. Now the circulating disk has reached nearly 600 million, and the disk is very large. Both service providers and ecological participants are not very motivated, and the demand is very small.
By the end of 2024, the peak of sector expiration will have passed, but this will only make Filecoin's network more stable, and the impact on supply will not improve much. The key to the future will still depend on whether a substantial ecosystem will emerge and increase the demand for FIL. If the ecological demand does not appear, it will be difficult for the secondary market to get out of the quagmire.
The circulating market value of the distributed storage project AR exceeded that of the track leader Filecoin in the first half of the year. Although AR's market value has fallen back a bit now, it does not affect its future development direction and trend, which is positive growth. This also makes many investors in this track depressed, and some friends also ask whether there has been a change in the storage track.
Filecoin has been weak for a long time. The core reason is that its ecological progress is slow. The poor design of the economic model has led to the continuous release of chips. Since the launch of Filecoin, its chips have been in a state of oversupply. Up to now, there are still about 400,000 FILs released every day (including the official foundation's daily release before October 2026, the storage service provider's daily block output, and the early service providers' expiration release). Under this situation and situation, it is a great pressure on investors and the market is bearish, and the price of the currency can rise. There is limited room.
In the macro environment, the market in this cycle really hates project tokens issued by institutions, because the circulating market value after listing is very small, the project dilution pushes the market value extremely high, and then it is continuously released and sold off, sucking blood from the secondary market. Funds would rather speculate on meme coins than touch the "value coins" of these institutions (including Ethereum), and Filecoin occupies all of these.
This round of AR's performance in the secondary market far exceeds FIL. The core reasons are: before its rise, its market value was very small and it was fully circulated, so there was no problem of institutional chips being released. The market classified it as a meme coin, and its officials often like to create concepts and hype. The starting point of the rise in the first half of the year was that the official announced that it would release an AO test network for social and computing, and then began to pull the market. Although the trend fell in the second half of the year, the plan has been implemented, and the future development should be good.
In the secondary market where existing funds compete, investors do not like the "value coins" of institutions, but prefer projects with small market capitalization but can create concepts. Even if everyone knows that they are speculating on "air", where there is a wealth effect, there is popularity. This is the eternal truth of the secondary market. Users do not care whether your technology is good or not, they only care whether you can cooperate in pulling up the market and hype.
