Many people are puzzled by my firm bearish stance on $BTC . The reason for my view is mainly based on the complexity of the current global economic situation and the problems within the cryptocurrency circle. In my opinion, despite the recent news of a 50 basis point interest rate cut, this is not enough to directly trigger a violent bull market. The reason is that the global economic situation is still facing many challenges, and geopolitical conflicts are also intensifying. Under such circumstances, I find it hard to believe that the cryptocurrency circle can be immune to the impact and achieve a soaring trend.

In addition, the liquidity problem of the cryptocurrency circle has not been fundamentally solved by the interest rate cut. It is not enough to support a long-term bull market by relying solely on the emotional FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) emotion to drive the market up. I firmly believe that a truly violent bull market must be based on the real incremental funds flowing into the cryptocurrency circle brought about by multiple interest rate cuts during the interest rate cut cycle, and the current situation has obviously not met this condition.

Furthermore, I noticed that this round of currency market was clearly manipulated by Wall Street. The market trend was often out of touch with the fundamentals and technical aspects, showing a trend of playing games with the dealer. Therefore, I doubted the reliability of relying on traditional technical analysis methods such as candlestick charts for trading decisions.

After the announcement of the interest rate cut, although there was a short-term carnival in the currency circle, I still kept a short position. I think this is just a short-term release of market sentiment and has not really changed the long-term trend of the market. On the contrary, as time goes by, investors may gradually calm down and realize that there has been no substantial change in the current market, so as to re-evaluate risks and returns.

Specifically, in terms of the performance of the market, I observed that there was a large selling pressure near US$65,000. Bitcoin failed to hit this price for three consecutive days, and the trading volume gradually shrank. At the same time, Bitcoin's strong performance has not effectively led to a full recovery of altcoins, which further exacerbated my pessimistic expectations for the market.

Based on the above analysis, my operational suggestion is to adopt a strategy of entering the warehouse in batches. In this way, you can gradually build positions when the market pulls back to avoid the risk of missing out, and maintain sufficient position flexibility when the market continues to fall to deal with possible risks.