TechFlow reported on September 22 that according to Jinshi Data, Gregory Daco, chief economist of Ernst & Young, said that the Fed was cutting interest rates "reactively" rather than proactively. Data released two days after the July meeting showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, raising concerns that the Fed waited too long to act. Although the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August, the same concerns may reappear if it rises again in the coming months. "Fed policymakers must adopt a strong forward-looking framework and abandon data-dependent practices, which, unfortunately, they have not done so far," Daco said.
Another challenge for Powell is that Wall Street is pricing in more rate cuts in the future than Fed policymakers predict. This week, policymakers estimated two more 25 basis point cuts by the end of 2024 and four more in 2025. Michael Feroli, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said he still expects rate cuts to come faster than the Fed consensus. Feroli expects a 50 basis point cut at the next meeting in early November if the next two jobs reports are further weak.
There are also differences within the Fed on the path of rate cuts. In the interest rate-setting committee, seven policymakers support another 25 basis point rate cut before the end of the year, nine members support an additional 50 basis point rate cut, and two policymakers do not expect further rate cuts. This divergence reflects different judgments on the economic outlook and increases the difficulty of Powell's coordination. Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman voted against a 50 basis point rate cut and supported a 25 basis point rate cut, the first dissenting vote at the Fed since 2005. Daco said: "Federal Reserve Chairman (Powell) is now considered to have significant influence on the Federal Open Market Committee because he has successfully convinced most officials that early rate cuts are optimal, but at the cost of policymakers being more resistant to rapid rate cuts at the next two policy meetings."
