In 2020, the market was still in a relatively depressed stage, with Bitcoin ($BTC) only $4,000 and Ethereum ($ETH) hovering around $100. With only 50,000 yuan, I boldly bought 1 Bitcoin and more than 20 Ethereums. To ensure the safety of my assets, I stored these digital assets in a hardware wallet and carefully recorded the private key password on the marriage certificate, thinking that this precious record should be kept at home forever and would not be easily lost.

Busyness and negligence: the turning point of fate

Time flies, and 23 years have passed in the blink of an eye. In 2023, after years of hard work, I finally bought a new house and prepared to move in. However, the moving process was a mess, and I lost the small package containing my marriage certificate in the busyness. When I realized this, the uneasiness in my heart gradually turned into deep panic - the small package containing the private keys of Bitcoin and Ethereum seemed to evaporate with its disappearance, and my wealth also evaporated.

At this time, the value of Bitcoin and Ethereum has soared to more than 1.5 million yuan, which should have been my lifetime wealth accumulation. However, this wealth can only be quietly trapped in that hardware wallet that cannot be found, becoming a regret that can never be touched.

The profound lesson of negative premium

This regret of 1.5 million yuan made me think about the concept of "negative premium". Negative premium means that in a specific transaction, the actual transaction price of an asset is lower than its market price. For example, in the stock market, the market price of a stock is 10 yuan, but it is traded at 9 yuan in a block transaction, and the premium rate is -10%.

In the cryptocurrency market, there is also a negative premium phenomenon. For example, the over-the-counter price of USDT (Tether) against RMB is lower than the exchange rate of USD against RMB, resulting in a negative premium. The reasons for the negative premium include:

1. Changes in market supply and demand: When sellers are eager to sell, transactions are completed at prices lower than the market price, resulting in a negative premium.

2. Asset characteristics: Certain assets have specific pricing mechanisms, which cause their prices to deviate from the market price.

3. Transaction costs: After taking into account transaction costs, the actual return is lower than expected, resulting in a negative premium.

These factors not only affect market price fluctuations, but are also directly related to investors' returns and risks.

Current market turbulence and forecasts

The cryptocurrency market is at a critical turning point. Here are some of my observations and predictions about the current market:

1. Impact of interest rate cuts: With the start of interest rate cuts and continued interest rate cuts in the future, the U.S. dollar has a tendency to weaken in the long run. This will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market, because the fluctuation of the U.S. dollar directly affects the pricing of crypto assets and investor confidence.

2. The movements of whales: In the last bull market, whales took advantage of the price increase to sell a large amount of cryptocurrencies, which led to an increase in market supply and pressure on prices. During the bear market, they hoarded coins at low prices, waiting for the next market rise to realize multiple profits. This operation method has increased market volatility and also exposed ordinary investors to greater risks.

In addition, the Bitcoin halving event and the repeated hype of the BlackRock ETF also had a significant impact on the market. The biggest concern is whether the United States can continue to cut interest rates significantly. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the Federal Reserve can only cut interest rates by 200 basis points cumulatively, and cannot maintain a larger rate cut. This means that the current bull market can only last about one and a half months, after which the market will enter a new adjustment period.

Seize the moment and embrace the opportunities in October

Although the market is full of uncertainty, I am still confident about the market in October. Looking back at the beginning of the year, it took only one and a half months for Bitcoin to rise from $42,000 to $70,000. Although the market at the beginning of the year seemed strong, it actually only lasted about 40 days. Subsequently, from March to September, the market experienced a long period of shock and adjustment. After half a year of downturn, it seems to have ushered in a new one-sided upward trend of one and a half months.