Based on the attached BTC/USDT chart, here is a detailed technical analysis supplemented with the US macroeconomic outlook:
1. Technical Analysis of BTC/USDT Chart
Current Price: 63,013.81 USDT (+6.56%)
Bitcoin has surged by over 6.5% recently, demonstrating a strong upward movement.
Fibonacci: The chart displays Fibonacci retracements, with levels highlighted at 0.25, 0.382, 0.618, and 0.75, which indicate possible support and resistance areas. The current price is near the 0.618 level, a critical resistance zone.
Supports and Resistances:
Support: 62,350 USDT (24h low), reinforced by the Fibonacci level at 0.382.
Resistance: 63,700 USDT (high in the last 24h), close to the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Indicators:
Stoch RSI: Currently at 26.96 level, indicating that the market is still in an oversold zone, suggesting a possible bullish reversal if it continues to rise.
MACD: The histogram suggests a slight recovery trend, with the lines still crossed towards a bullish reversal. This suggests that momentum may be strengthening.
Long-Term Trends: The weekly chart suggests that despite the correction over the last 180 days (-5.53%), Bitcoin still shows a strongly positive trend year-to-date (+137.18%).
2. US Macroeconomic Scenario
Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve has maintained an aggressive stance on raising interest rates in an effort to control inflation. However, recent signs of weakening economic growth may prompt the Fed to reconsider raising rates or at least slow down the pace. High interest rates often negatively impact risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies, due to reduced liquidity in the market.
Inflation: Inflation remains high, but is beginning to show signs of moderation. With inflation under control, investors tend to look to assets like Bitcoin as a store of value, mainly due to its deflationary nature.
Labor Market: The US labor market remains resilient, but signs of weakening may emerge with high interest rates, which may increase interest in speculative assets such as Bitcoin in times of uncertainty.
Dollar Value: The dollar index (DXY) has been showing volatility. A weaker dollar generally favors the price of Bitcoin as investors seek to hedge against the dollar’s devaluation.
Conclusion
Short-Term: Bitcoin price is facing a major resistance around 63,700 USDT, and a break of this resistance could trigger a fresh rally towards the 68,000-70,000 USDT levels. However, if the price fails to break above this, a correction towards the 0.382 Fib level (near 60,000 USDT) could occur.
Long-term: The US macroeconomic outlook, with the possibility of a slowdown in interest rate hikes and moderating inflation, could be positive for Bitcoin, which continues to be seen as an alternative to the traditional financial system. If the economic uncertainty intensifies, Bitcoin could attract more investors.
Keeping a close eye on the Fed's upcoming moves and US inflation data will be crucial to assessing Bitcoin's prospects in the short and medium term. If you liked my short analysis, share it with your investor friends and I will be happy to post relevant analyses that can help you make a decision.
