Affected by the Fed's shift to monetary easing, on September 20, the price of gold stood at 2,600 points, a new high. At the close of Thursday, the S&P 500 index stood at 5,700 points and the Dow Jones index stood at 42,000 points, both hitting record highs. The Nasdaq index rose 2.5%, about 3.6% from the new high. The big cake is about 15% away from the new high. Dudley, former head of the New York Fed, said that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 and 25 basis points in November and December, respectively. Wall Street is betting that the Fed will be able to achieve a soft landing, which has stimulated a rebound in riskier areas of the market. UBS's basic expectation is that the S&P 500 will reach 5,900 points by the end of the year and rise to 6,200 points in June 2025. Standard Chartered Bank analysts predict that the currency market will continue to recover due to favorable macroeconomic conditions. BlackRock believes that the key significance of the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points is that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates over the next two years.
The Federal Reserve aims for a soft landing of the economy, and is constantly giving the weak U.S. economy a shot (rate cuts/rescues), and is full of worries about the job market. According to the Fed's interest rate dot chart, the median interest rate will be 3.5% at the end of 2025 (currently 4.75-5.25%). Under normal circumstances, when the Fed starts to cut interest rates, it is highly likely that risk assets will enter a bull market, and a bear market is a low-probability event (economic recession). The Atlanta Fed expects the U.S. GDP to be 3% in the third quarter, and the original expectation was 2.6% (two consecutive quarters of negative values are considered a recession). In the short term, before the interest rate reaches 3.5%, the Fed's interest rate cuts are expected to continue, and the market will enter a favorable environment. #美联储宣布降息50个基点 #加密市场反弹
